On March 8, some prominent economists in Hong Kong gathered at the University of Hong Kong (HKU) to discuss the impact of China's “two sessions” on the Chinese economy and the global economy. They interpreted the expected target of around five percent GDP growth in 2024 outlined in the government work report.
"'Two sessions' always attract global attention because China's macroeconomic policies can influence the global economy," said Liu Ningrong, Associate Vice-President at HKU and Founding Director at HKU ICB.
Liu stated that China's GDP growth of 5.2 percent in 2023 was impressive but did not signify a complete economic recovery. "The five percent target for 2024 is ambitious yet essential amidst various challenges, including the U.S. pressure and the threats in such areas as artificial intelligence (AI), electric vehicles(EV), and semiconductors," he said.
Lawrence J. Lau, former Vice-Chancellor (President) of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, noted that last year's GDP growth of 5.2 percent exceeded the expectations of many institutions, marking an achievement. "China's shift towards emphasizing the quality of growth, stating that ensuring high-quality growth makes five percent a high standard," he said.
"2024 is crucial for the recovery of both the Chinese and global economies," remarked Li Cheng, founding director of the Centre on Contemporary China and the World (CCCW) at HKU. Li stressed the importance of viewing China's economic future from a global perspective amid the current international uncertainties. He regarded China's five percent growth target as a demonstration of strength, aimed at instilling confidence in the Chinese people and the world.
"The growth figures and expected targets mentioned in the government work report are within expectations," stated Helen Qiao, managing director, chief economist for Greater China and head of Asia Ex-Japan Economic Research at Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Ltd. Qiao's team previously forecasted China's GDP growth for 2024 at 4.8 percent. While acknowledging concerns about weakening consumer confidence, Qiao highlighted signs of continuing consumer demand, particularly in third-tier cities and rural areas.
Shan Hui, Chief China Economist at Goldman Sachs, also forecasted a 4.8 percent GDP growth for China in 2024, closely aligning with Premier Li Qiang's proposed five percent target. "The challenges of achieving this goal in 2024, particularly in finding stimuli for economic growth, suggest maintaining exports, addressing the real estate industry downturn, and central government fiscal support as crucial measures," he said.
Zhu Xiaodong, Chair Professor of Economics Faculty of Business and Economics HKU, proposed focusing on reforms to unleash productivity, which historically has significantly contributed to China's GDP growth. He believes that emphasizing bottom-up reforms can bring new opportunities for China's economic growth.
The discussions among economists reflect both optimism and realism regarding China's economic trajectory in 2024, acknowledging challenges while highlighting potential avenues for growth and reform.
Reporter | Clarice, Cindy
Poster | Mia
Editor | Steven, Will, James
