"From a military perspective, it was very successful. But from a grand strategic perspective, whether the U.S. has achieved its intended goals remains a big question mark." This is how Professor Jin Canrong, an international relations expert at Renmin University of China, framed the U.S. operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, in an interview with South.
The operation, which U.S. President Donald Trump said would lead America to "run" Venezuela, has sent shockwaves through the international community. Professor Jin's analysis dissects the immediate tactical victory against its fraught strategic and political backdrop.
Professor Jin assessed the raid itself as "indeed a well-executed special operations mission," attributing its success to long-term preparation since "last August" and exploiting vulnerabilities within Venezuela. He pointed to an "undoubtedly... mole inside his circle" to explain how Maduro was captured despite likely precautions.
However, Jin immediately noted the severe political cost. "It will incur costs down the line," he stated, a prediction borne out by immediate global condemnation. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed deep alarm, while Venezuelan Ambassador to South Africa Carlos Feo Acevedo condemned it as a "clear kidnapping" and violation of international law. In the U.S., "No War on Venezuela" protests were planned across major cities.
Jin identified three converging motives. Firstly, resource control: Venezuela's "over 300 billion barrels of proven oil" represented a clear incentive. Trump's post-capture announcement - authorizing U.S. oil firms to take over Venezuela's energy infrastructure and stating "we're going to be taking out a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground"—directly confirms this objective.
Secondly, a strategic shift to a "Monroe Doctrine 2.0." Jin argued the action was inevitable after the Trump administration's latest National Security Strategy emphasized "absolute dominance in the Western Hemisphere." By making an example of Venezuela, a "medium-sized regional power," the U.S. aims for a "powerful chilling effect" across Latin America. Trump himself claimed to have "superseded" the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine.
Thirdly, domestic politics for Trump. With "a lack of significant foreign policy achievements" near his one-year mark, Jin suggested capturing Maduro offered "a concrete accomplishment" for his base, explaining why "Democratic lawmakers are so incensed."
The core of Jin's skepticism lies in the unfinished political mission. "If the Maduro regime persists after the operation, then strategically, the U.S. has not succeeded," he argued. The goal of installing a pro-American government and securing resources remains unmet.
This creates a dangerous bind. Achieving regime change might "require a ground invasion, which carries the high risk of entangling the U.S. in a quagmire," Jin warned. This risk is heightened because the U.S.-backed opposition, potentially figures like María Corina Machado whom Trump mentioned, has "thus far failed to gain popular legitimacy."
Furthermore, Jin dismissed the operation's legal foundation. "Entering a sovereign nation to apprehend its president is a clear violation of international law," he said, adding that the U.S. historical justification is "not recognized by the international community" - a view echoing global diplomatic reactions.
Reporter: Guo Zedong
Video: Guo Hongda
Poster: Lai Meiya
Editor: Yuan Zixiang, Ouyang Yan, Shen He, Ou Xiaoming
