US President Donald Trump speaks during an executive order signing ceremony in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, Jan. 31, 2025. (CFP Photo)
Again, Donald Trump returns to the Oval Office. The 78-year-old man, having escaped a bullet by the skin of his teeth, delivered a speech full of plain language and demagogic statements but with more specific actions outlined in his executive orders.
Perhaps not a large portion of people worldwide took his inauguration speech seriously on Jan. 20, 2017. However, what's past is prologue, as his inauguration speech soon triggered global attention eight years later.
In the third episode of the exclusive interview with GDToday, David Blair, vice president and senior economist at the Center for China and Globalization, focused on the stick of tariffs under the Trump administration. He underscored that U.S. trade policy is never about economics but international relations.
Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary, arrives for a news conference in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, Jan. 31, 2025. (CFP Photo)
The US President Donald Trump intends to move ahead with plans on February 1 to impose a 10% levy on China and 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the White House said. Upon his inauguration, Trump has already voiced such statements even for US traditional partner countries.
According to Blair, there's a huge difference between large economies and small economies. "If you are a small country, you gain a lot from trade. But if you are a big country, you don't gain that much," he added.
The term in economics gains from trade measures how much GDP one country gets by increasing trade. The estimates for gains from trade of the U.S. are petite, as Blair observes.
That's one reason that the U.S. left the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017. Even people who advocated for their models showed less than a 1% increase despite not being good models. "Basically, it was zero."
Then U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Truth Social account featured a tweet announcing his plans to establish an External Revenue Service to manage trade tariffs on foreign countries in an economic trade war on Jan. 12, 2025. (CFP Photo)
To be blunt, Blair underlined that U.S. trade policy was never about economics, but international relations of building up power, especially relationships with European countries and Japan and other countries later, and somewhat with China now.
Via the sticks of tariffs, he analyzed that Trump intended to ensure that Canada and Mexico are close partners instead of working against the United States.
As for China, Blair projected that the U.S. would not import as many as it used to. China is a large country that can keep growing heavily hinged on exports, which he thinks is impossible.
"Therefore, China has to have the policy of dual circulation with more domestic emphasis, such as the United States does," he added.
Blair noted that China is the only other huge economy in the world in the same economic position as the United States. Its future economic growth depends on the policies the Chinese government is advocating now—dual circulation, industrial upgrading, rural revitalization, increasing the productivity of Chinese people, and living standards.
Reporter: Zhang Ruijun
Editor: Yuan Zixiang, James, Shen He
