Since the start of his second term, American President Donald Trump has intensified his push for aggressive tariffs, framing them as a cornerstone of his "Make America Great Again" agenda. The policies aim to bring back manufacturing jobs, reduce trade deficits, and reclaim America's industrial dominance.
After a years-long game of tariffs, how possibly can such aggressive trade policies bring the jobs back and ultimately help reclaim America's industrial crown? However, critics argue that these measures have proven counterproductive.
Will Trump keep up to his promise?
According to the White House, the hemorrhaging trade deficit has for years threatened the US's economy and national security. It has hollowed out its industrial base, has reduced overall national competitiveness, and has made the nation dependent on other countries to meet its key security needs.
"They've identified the problem but are offering the wrong solutions," said Marc Uzan, Founder and Executive Director of the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee. He thinks rebuilding the US manufacturing base in Trump's way is unrealistic. "You can't bring back manufacturing by simply extracting resources from other countries," he said, "The US doesn't tackle this rising inequality. There's no trade policy to provide a social safety net like in European countries."
Short-term domestic production remains elusive. "You can't rebuild manufacturing overnight," said Marc, highlighting that factory investments take years—far beyond Trump's four-year term.
Derek Holste, an American citizen, shared his belief that while tariffs may have played a role in certain economic decisions, they should not be the primary incentive for companies to invest in America. "We can get a lot more done in less time. That's the reason why countries should come to America. Not because of tariffs," he stated.
Instead, the tariffs have triggered a chain reaction. American consumers now face sharply higher prices on imported goods, from electronics to produce. "The costs will be borne by American consumers," warned Harold James, a Princeton University historian, contradicting Trump's claim that foreign producers would shoulder the burden.
Is trade deficit at the core of the problem?
In 2024, China accounted for the largest U.S. goods trade deficit, followed by Mexico ($172 billion) and Canada ($63 billion). Collectively, these three nations represent 41% of U.S. imports.
Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute, dismissed Trump's strategy as a "bluff," citing structural challenges: "The U.S. hasn't built a major aluminum plant in 40 years. Existing capacity is maxed out at 90%—it can't meet demand."
Economists and historians argue that tariffs fail to address root causes. Harold James noted that job losses stemmed more from automation than trade: "Many manufacturing jobs would've vanished anyway due to technical change."
Trump's policies have fused economics with geopolitics. "This is about coercion," Uzan remarked, pointing to strained relations with major partners like China and Mexico. The 2016 trade war, launched over alleged unfair practices, ultimately backfired.
"The U.S. lost that war," said Derek Holste. "China diversified its economy, while America struggled to compete with Chinese imports."
Echoes of sad history?
Back during Trump's first term in the White House, he took the first act to declare a trade war against China, which he attributed to unfair trade practices and lack of access by U.S. companies to the Chinese market.
According to Derek Holste, while some economists may have differing opinions, most would argue that the U.S. lost the trade war, or as he put it, "Trump lost the trade war."
"There was more disutility coming out of America than in China, which kind of means that China was able to differentiate itself from American goods," he said, "in comparison to America being able to differentiate itself from imports from China."
As years passed, however, that has turned out to be a failed attempt at solving the underlying economic concerns of the U.S. His first-term pledges—massive tax cuts and growth for middle-class Americans—largely went unfulfilled. Now, critics fear a repeat. His dismantling of safeguards and reliance on tariffs risks "preventable disasters."
Reporter | Guo Zedong, Zhang Ruijun, Xie Hongzhou
Script | Guo Zedong
Video editor | Ou Nanying
Graphic design | Cai Junru
Editor | Yuan Zixiang, James, Shen He
