When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint Israeli-American strike early morning of February 28, Iran didn't just lose a leader. It lost the last remaining pillar of a revolutionary order that had stood for 46 years.
"This will send shockwaves through Iran, both inward and outward," said Lu Qi, deputy director of the Intellisia Institute, a prominent independent think tank. "The assassination marks the complete collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and signals its descent into armed conflict."
Photo taken on June 28, 2024 shows Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attending Iran's 14th presidential election at a polling station in Tehran, Iran
State television confirmed the death of the 86-year-old cleric in an emotional announcement, declaring 40 days of national mourning. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened what it calls "the most devastating offensive operation in the history of the Islamic Republic's armed forces" against both Israel and American military installations across the region.
What the strike really says about the US power?
According to Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Khamenei was killed in the early hours of Saturday at his office inside the Leadership House compound in Tehran, "while carrying out his duties." Satellite imagery analyzed confirms significant damage to sections of the heavily fortified complex.
Hours before the Iranian announcement, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the Supreme Leader had been killed during coordinated strikes with Israel on multiple targets inside Iran. The operation appears, on its surface, to showcase American precision warfare at its most lethal. But experts caution against reading too much into the tactical success.
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Wang Jin, director of the Israeli Studies Program at Northwest University in China, offers a perspective on the U.S. approach: "The United States has developed a mature set of tactics. Its logic is to preserve the opponent's system—so that the system can align with U.S. interests in the future—while removing the hardline figurehead at the top. This has been a consistent pattern in recent years."
However, Li Shaoxian, Honorary Director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University, points out a critical distinction: targeting Khamenei may not yield the decisive, quick result the U.S. and Israel desire, unlike in cases such as Venezuela.
"The national conditions of Iran and Venezuela are vastly different," Li noted. "An attack on Khamenei, occurring during the 40-day mourning period and the holy month of Ramadan, imbues Iran with the spirit of a 'grieving army.' It is unlikely to collapse the regime; instead, it may galvanize its resolve to fight back."
The precision of the decapitation strike highlights a critical, enabling factor. Li Shaoxian attributes this primarily to Israel's decades-long intelligence efforts against Iran. "This operation requires substantial intelligence support. Israel has been working on Iran for at least thirty or forty years. Its capabilities in espionage, infiltration, and intelligence collection are formidable. Last June, they nearly wiped out the military high command; this time, they eliminated the Supreme Leader. This underscores Israel's pivotal role in the operation's intelligence aspect," Li noted.
The succession trap
Under the Iranian constitution, Khamenei's successor must be chosen by the Assembly of Leadership Experts—the same body that appointed him. But convening the 88 clerics amid active military strikes presents significant security challenges. In the interim, a temporary council has assumed leadership responsibilities: President Masoud Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary, and a jurist from the Guardian Council will collectively steer the state until a new supreme leader is selected.
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Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, emerges as the likeliest candidate to fill the void permanently. Having overseen critical portfolios including negotiations with the United States and wartime planning, Larijani brings both institutional memory and hardline credentials.
Li Shaoxian adds context to this transition: "Khamenei's death will not create a power vacuum. Reports indicate he transferred significant political and military authority to his advisor Larijani about two months ago. The announced interim ruling council further institutionalizes the succession. There will be an impact, but it is not decisive and will not derail Iran's will to retaliate."
Yet Tehran is expected to activate parallel mechanisms to manage the vacuum. Institutionally, the interim council ensures continuity while the Assembly rushes to select a successor. On the security front, the IRGC has moved to highest alert. Socially, the official mourning period will be accompanied by information controls framing the leader's death as martyrdom.
But these are stopgaps. The fundamental dilemma, as Lu Qi frames it, is that the "arbitration authority" Khamenei accumulated over thirty-seven years cannot be institutionalized overnight. "If the new leader lacks his religious credentials and political acumen—whoever it turns out to be—Iran may slide toward military rule or collective leadership."
Tehran's reckoning
The IRGC has issued an unambiguous threat of retaliation. While the timing remains unclear, the language suggests preparations for significant military action were already in place. Any widespread Iranian retaliation would trap the region in a cycle of escalation.
According to Lu, diplomatic channels, possibly involving Oman, are expected to be activated to mediate. Israel, by contrast, may see an opening for expanded strikes. The broader picture is one of a Middle East where proxy warfare and direct confrontation intertwine.
Any widespread Iranian retaliation would trap the region in a self-perpetuating cycle of revenge and counter-revenge. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already begun rerouting oil shipments, privately pressing Washington for restraint—not out of sympathy for Tehran, but fear that all-out conflict could consume their own territories.
Iraq and Syria, meanwhile, host Iranian-aligned militias that could synchronize attacks on American outposts, forcing Baghdad and Damascus into an impossible position. Turkey and Qatar are likely to accelerate energy diversification, hedging against overreliance on Washington. Russia may seize the moment to supply Iran with advanced air defense systems while deepening Caspian Sea energy collaboration.
The broader picture, as Lu describes it, is one of a Middle East sliding toward the edge—where proxy warfare and direct confrontation intertwine, and where nations are forced to perform a precarious balancing act between taking sides and protecting themselves.
Will the U.S. and Israel realize regime change in Iran?
For all the tactical success of the strike, experts caution against assuming that regime change is now within reach. Li Shaoxian's analysis aligns with this caution, emphasizing that the attack is more likely to consolidate the existing system than topple it.
Lu Qi elaborates on the structural hurdles: "The pillars of the Iranian regime—the Revolutionary Guard, the religious foundations, the network of local clerics—remain fully intact. They cannot be dismantled in the short term." History shows external strikes often trigger nationalist backlash, consolidating authoritarian rule.
"If the U.S. and Israel continue to escalate militarily, they risk triggering uncontrollable scenarios," Lu warned, such as a military junta, regional fragmentation, or nuclear insecurity. "None of these amount to 'regime change'—they're the opposite."
As Iran enters its constitutionally mandated mourning period, the international community watches with mounting concern. The death of the man who shaped Iran's domestic and foreign policy for decades has created a power vacuum at the most volatile moment in the region's recent history.
"The only variable that might cushion the blow," Lu said, "is whether a successor can emerge quickly and consolidate factional consensus. That will determine whether Iran moves toward orderly transition or prolonged turmoil."
Author: Guo Zedong
Reporter: Yuan Zixiang, Liu Xiaodi
Photo: Xinhua
