Zhu Zhaoyi delivers a speech at the "APEC China Year—Greater Bay Area Academic Roundtable" in Shenzhen on April 17, 2026. (Photo courtesy of the Institute for International Affairs at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen)
The two-week temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran approaches its deadline, expiring on April 22. The US has sent a delegation to Pakistan for a possible second round of negotiations, despite Tehran's refusal to attend the talks due to the US's violation of the ceasefire by blocking Iranian ports.
"Personally, I am not optimistic about the prospects of the negotiations," noted Zhu Zhaoyi, Executive Director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at Peking University HSBC Business School, in an exclusive interview with South recently.
Dim prospects for a second round of US-Iran negotiations
On April 20, 2026, workers walk past billboards near the Serena Hotel ahead of the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan.
The most desirable goal for the US and Israel, as Zhu analyzed, is to reach a ceasefire agreement that can restrict Iran in three domains—its nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, and its proxy forces.
He detailed three tall orders that Iran must completely discard its nuclear program; its external attack capabilities must be significantly limited or completely contained, preventing it from projecting missiles outward; Iran must cease underpinning proxy forces such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
"These three domains are vital to Iran, and it is extremely tough to demand that Iran abandon them or make significant concessions," claimed Zhu.
Regarding the trajectory of the warfare, he believed that the US and Iran may agree to extend the ceasefire, perhaps for another two weeks, creating room for further communication.
Notably, Zhu projected that barring unforeseen circumstances, it is highly possible that two sides will linger in the process of ceasefire negotiations, prior to Donald Trump's scheduled visit to China in mid-May.
The root of turmoil in the Middle East stems from hegemonic intervention
On April 14, 2026, an elderly Iranian man and a young girl walk past the ruins of a destroyed building in the Shahid Boroujerdi residential complex in southern Tehran, Iran.
As relentless conflicts rage in the Middle East, Zhu told South reporter that the root of the long-term turmoil in the region "hinges largely on hegemonic intervention."
The Sykes-Picot Agreement, signed by Britain and France in 1916, in his view, was essentially a way for the waning British and French empires to leave some disputed points open in the Middle East.
"If the local peoples could not resolve these, they could return at any time to get involved in local affairs," Zhu added.
He listed two examples, namely, the internal conflicts within Iraq and the Palestinian issue. The former is owing to a country with man-made borders, its internal conflicts having existed since the Sykes-Picot Agreement. The latter is a hornet nest left over from British colonial withdrawal, which remains unresolved to this day.
As Zhu observes, the Iran issue is more a result of external interference than internal governance failures. Undeniably, external interference such as the suppression and sanctions imposed on this export-oriented economy by the US, Europe, and Israel has caused enormous economic challenges and disrupted its holistic situation.
"The chaos in the Middle East stems from historical issues," Zhu noted. In the last two or three decades, these have intensified "due to widening differences in levels of economic development and governance models among countries in the region."
This has led to spillover conflicts arising from differing development philosophies among economies and power entities.
Investments between China and the Middle East will not be hugely affected in the long run
On 14 April 2026, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (C), Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, attends a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China.
Given the disruption caused by ongoing wars in the Middle East, Zhu forecasts that investments between China and the region will not be hugely affected in the long run during a longer period of half a year to three years, despite all fluctuations in the past two or three months.
Based on his institution's observation, China's cooperation with major Middle East capital cities such as Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai has not been significantly impacted.
A report published by the UAE-China Chamber of Commerce in September last year unveiled that China remains the UAE's largest trading partner, with over 15,000 Chinese firms operating in the country.
Key investments such as the COSCO terminal at Khalifa Port and the China-UAE Industrial Capacity Zone underscore the strategic alignment of both nations within the Belt and Road Initiative.
Among China's outbound investments, Hong Kong SAR is undoubtedly the most important destination. However, Zhu noted that the trend is not apparent that funds previously held in Dubai or Abu Dhabi will flow to Hong Kong. Some of Dubai's advantages have not been fundamentally changed by this war.
Correspondingly, according to Zhu, some outstanding Chinese high-tech companies—whether already listed or set to be listed, particularly those in Shenzhen—have attracted huge attention from Arab countries. They are eager to acquire stakes in these companies.
Reporter | Zhang Ruijun
Photo | CFP
