"The renewal means opening up those formal lines of communication and being open to officially having conversations," says Canadian economist Dr. Robin Shaban in an interview with South, pinpointing the core imperative behind Prime Minister Mark Carney's "consequential and historic" visit to China from January 14 to 17.
The visit is propelled by converging pressures. Geopolitically, Canada faces what Shaban terms "profound geopolitical instability," stemming largely from its southern neighbor. Recent U.S. actions—including sovereignty claims over Greenland, designating the Northwest Passage as an "international waterway," and political rhetoric that often frames "Canada as the 51st state"—have heightened Ottawa's sense of strategic vulnerability.
Economically, this unease is compounded by a dangerous over-reliance on the U.S., which accounts for roughly 70% of Canadian exports, and a domestic industrial base that Shaban argues has eroded. "Over the last decade, the manufacturing capability and complexity of the Canadian economy has actually declined," she notes, leaving the nation overly dependent on exporting "a lot of raw material or raw labor."
This dual pressure makes diversifying ties beyond Washington an urgent necessity, not merely an option. The mission falls to a new prime minister whose orientation differs from his predecessor's. "Carney is, in many ways, a very different person from Trudeau," Shaban observes. While Justin Trudeau championed progressive multilateralism, Carney's background as a central banker signals a prime focus on economic fundamentals.
"Carney's focus is going to be on building the Canadian economy," she says, "while still staying true to the ideas of social progress that Trudeau put forward." This pragmatic, economics-first approach is directly tailored to addressing the vulnerabilities laid bare by U.S. protectionism and supply chain disruptions, particularly in integrated sectors like auto manufacturing, where cross-border links are now under strain.
In this context, China emerges as a pivotal, if complex, partner in Canada's effort to "get more connected with the globe, not just America." The relationship, however, must first overcome recent friction. The former government's alignment with U.S. tariffs—imposing a 100% duty on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs)—triggered retaliatory measures on Canadian canola and pork, contributing to a reported decline in bilateral trade to around 52 billion US Dollars in 2025. Shaban suggests a path to de-escalation lies in rule-based reforms, such as aligning Canada's EV tariffs with the more WTO-consistent, evidence-based model used by the European Union—a potential "positive contribution to helping to de-escalate the conflict."
Looking beyond immediate disputes, long-term opportunities in energy collaboration illustrate the relationship's potential. As the U.S. consolidates its global energy influence, Canadian oil and LNG exports seek alternative markets. Projects like a potential pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific coast are direct attempts to "improve access to markets outside of the United States," with China as a key destination. Shaban sees "a lot of potential" here, acknowledging such projects are "not easy or fast," but essential for diversifying trade routes.
Ultimately, Shaban frames Carney's journey as more than a diplomatic reset with Beijing. It is a concrete step in a "broader project of building deeper ties with countries all around the world." For a nation navigating geopolitical pressures and economic dependencies, reopening a formal dialogue with China represents a crucial, albeit challenging, bid to forge greater strategic flexibility and redefine its place in a fragmenting global order.
Reporter: Guo Zedong
Video recording: Guo Zedong
Video editor: Liang Zijian
Cover: Lai Meiya
Editor: Yuan Zixiang, James Campion, Shen He, Ou Xiaoming
