The U.S. Supreme Court's recent 6–3 ruling that President Donald Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful has triggered widespread discussion about whether U.S.–China trade tensions may now ease.
The Court determined that IEEPA, a 1977 statute allowing the president to regulate commerce during foreign-triggered national emergencies, does not authorize the imposition of tariffs. Because the ruling declared the IEEPA-based "fentanyl" and "reciprocal" tariffs unlawful from the outset, many observers interpreted the decision as a structural weakening of the Trump administration's trade leverage.
However, IEEPA had provided the administration with unusual flexibility. It enabled rapid, broad-based tariff actions framed under the language of national emergency, without lengthy investigations or industry-specific findings. Its removal narrows procedural options, but it does not eliminate tariff escalation.
(The downtown Los Angeles skyline is seen behind shipping containers at the LATC-Union Pacific Los Angeles Transportation Center rail yard on February 24, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo: CFP)
For Chinese exporters, the legal setback under IEEPA does not eliminate exposure to renewed or targeted tariffs in strategic sectors.
The Supreme Court's ruling has also opened the door to potential refunds of IEEPA tariffs already paid. According to government data, importers had deposited approximately $129 billion in estimated duties under the IEEPA framework as of December 2025. Because the Court ruled that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs at all, companies that paid those duties now have a legal basis to seek recovery.
Before the ruling, the U.S. Department of Justice assured courts that it would reliquidate entries and issue refunds if the tariffs were declared unlawful. Courts relied on those assurances in declining to pause the tariffs during litigation, reasoning that businesses would not suffer irreparable harm because refunds would remain available.
However, recent statements by President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggest that refunds may not be automatic. Trump has said the issue may "have to get litigated for the next two years," while Bessent indicated the matter could take "weeks or months" to resolve. The administration has emphasized that refunds would occur only after a "final and unappealable decision," language that could allow for further procedural delays.
Under U.S. customs law, the refund process depends heavily on whether imports have been "liquidated" or remain unliquidated. Many entries may still be pending liquidation, which could allow for adjustments if courts confirm the tariffs were unlawful. But entries already liquidated may require importers to file formal protests within strict statutory deadlines. If protests are denied, companies may need to pursue litigation in the U.S. Court of International Trade. That process can be lengthy and costly. Smaller and medium-sized enterprises, especially those that used simplified informal entry procedures, may face greater practical barriers to recovery.
Even where refunds are eventually granted - given that Congress Democrats are on the move to see that happen - payments would be made to the importers who directly paid the duties, not to downstream distributors or end consumers. Whether any recovered funds are passed through supply chains will be determined by commercial negotiations, not by automatic policy design.
For Chinese firms, the refund debate matters in two ways. First, it may affect ongoing pricing discussions with U.S. buyers who are seeking to recover past tariff costs. Second, the prolonged and uncertain litigation environment reinforces that legal victory does not necessarily translate into immediate commercial normalization.
A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that nearly 90 percent of the cost of the 2025 tariffs was borne by U.S. importers and consumers. The White House strongly criticized the study.
For Chinese exporters and supply chain operators, three conclusions are clear. Tariff volatility remains despite the Court's ruling.
Sector-specific risks, particularly in technology-intensive and strategic industries, persist under Sections 301 and 232.
And the legal process surrounding refunds is likely to be prolonged and procedurally complex.
For other major U.S. trading partners, the implications are similarly mixed. Countries such as Japan and South Korea, which have reached framework understandings with Washington and pledged expanded investment in the United States, may find greater room to negotiate the pace and implementation of those commitments now that IEEPA-based pressure has been curtailed.
Meanwhile, Canada and the European Union remain exposed to tariff threats under alternative statutory authorities, meaning that the broader environment of uncertainty in U.S. trade policy continues to affect global supply chains. Especially for the EU, which has unease with the U.S. over its digital service tax plan, may sooner or later reexperience the tariff threats from Washington.
The post-IEEPA landscape is narrower but not stable. For Chinese enterprises engaged in U.S. trade, the prudent assumption is not that tariff risk has ended, but that it has become more differentiated and legally structured. Strategic planning should account for continued policy volatility, possible short-term diplomatic stabilization, and the likelihood that legal and commercial adjustments will unfold gradually rather than suddenly.
The Supreme Court closed one chapter of tariff escalation. It did not close the book on U.S.–China trade friction.
This article is written by Alan Zhang, Research Associate & Manager, Trade 'n Technology Program, Institute for China-America Studies
