"The China-US trade war is becoming a truce," noted Ian Bremmer, Founder and President of Eurasia Group, in an exclusive interview with South recently.
Data unveiled by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China on October 14 showed that China's trade with the US continued to rebound in the first three quarters of 2026, with the total value of imports and exports reaching 3.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1 percent.
Ian Bremmer, following a Bloomberg Television interview in London, UK, on Oct. 7, 2026
Bremmer said he would have liked to see an extension of more than two months, beyond early January next year.
More trade wars, more damage
During the eighth round of economic and trade consultations in New York and Washington held in late September, China and the US reached consensus on the establishment of the China-US Trade Council, the China-US Investment Council, a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework involving approximately $30 billion in imports from each side, as well as new mechanisms for dialogue on agriculture, finance and AI.
Bremmer underscored that there was a recognition that the US and China could cause a lot of damage to each other after Trump's Liberation Day tariffs last April, with mutual trade boycotts followed quickly by a climbdown.
"This (tariff) wasn't causing any benefits to anyone and was just going to lead to more fighting and more damage," he noted.
Last year, the value of US imports from China plummeted by approximately 30 percent, while its exports to China plunged by over 25 percent. By the end of 2025, the share of Chinese goods in total US imports had dropped to less than 10 percent, the lowest level since 2000.
"But there is the desire to get to a better place on this from both leaders and governments," Bremmer argued, taking a more cautiously optimistic stance after the good news of September.
More constructive trade engagement between two sides
The American political scientist projected more constructive engagement on trade. He detailed that this is due more to the US focus on short-term interests, such as getting access to TikTok and ensuring the Chinese buy soybeans, which helps red-state farmers. The Chinese side, meanwhile, is focusing more, in the long term, on governance of multilateral institutions and the country's greater influence.
During the eighth round of economic and trade consultations, both sides agreed to provide reciprocal tariff reductions for imports valued at approximately $30 billion each, in accordance with their respective domestic laws and procedures.
The US side will lower tariffs on roughly $30 billion worth of Chinese imports, including toys, home appliances, baby products, kitchen and bathroom supplies, and holiday gifts. Correspondingly, the Chinese side will lower tariffs on some $30 billion worth of US imports, covering agricultural products, personal care items, medical devices and coal.
For more than 90 percent of these products, the additional tariffs imposed on each other will be waived, and the goods will be subject to most-favored-nation tariff rates.
As for the agriculture sector, the two sides have agreed to establish an agricultural working group under the China-US Trade Council to discuss relevant issues including regulation and market access, address trade concerns, and expand practical cooperation. The working group is scheduled to hold its inaugural meeting by the end of this year.
Above all, China and the US have agreed to extend the suspension of certain tariff and non-tariff measures, currently set to end on November 10, 2026, to January 10, 2027.
"I would have liked to have seen an extension of more than two months. I think the Chinese would too. But in part, this is because both sides want to have additional things to announce in upcoming meetings. I expect that will be positive," Bremmer added.
Reporter | Zhang Ruijun
Photo | CFP
