Almost five weeks into the war in Iran, the economic and political costs for the United States are mounting, with no clear exit in sight.
One of the most immediate impacts is on global energy markets. The conflict has disrupted supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil trade, sending prices soaring above $100 per barrel.
Analysts warn that prolonged disruptions could push prices even higher, amplifying inflationary pressure worldwide.
For the United States, this translates directly into rising costs. Higher fuel prices are expected to ripple across transportation, food, and consumer goods, increasing the burden on households.
The OECD projects U.S. inflation could reach around 4.2% in 2026 due largely to energy price shocks linked to the war.
According to a Goldman Sachs analysis, the oil price shock triggered by the war will suppress payroll growth by roughly 10,000 jobs per month through the end of the year — a toll that will be felt most acutely in restaurants, hotels, and retail stores across the country.
Beyond the economy, the war carries significant political risks.
Public support for overseas military engagement remains limited, and rising living costs could further erode domestic backing.
At the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, which is basically a rampart of Trump’s political movement, attendees expressed growing concerns about the war in Iran.
At the same time, deeper military involvement risks repeating a familiar pattern: prolonged conflicts with high financial and strategic costs.
Regionally, the consequences are even more severe.
The war has disrupted supply chains and raised concerns over humanitarian risks. In Gulf countries, where desalination provides the majority of drinking water, attacks on such infrastructure could threaten water security for millions.
Diplomatic options also appear to be narrowing. Analysts note that opportunities for negotiation have diminished amid escalating tensions, reducing the likelihood of a quick resolution.
As the conflict drags on, the strategy of “winning by not losing” may favor Iran, while the United States faces rising economic strain, political pressure, and the risk of deeper entanglement in yet another costly war.
Reporter | Xie Hongzhou
Cameraman | Deng Yingheng
Video & Poster | Deng Yingheng
