A joint military strike against Iran launched by Israel and the United States on February 28 has lasted for more than half a month.
Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in the early attack, Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed that its secretary, Ali Larijani, was killed on March 18. Some Western pundits have warned of looming signs of the dragging on of a war quagmire due to Iran's firm will to fight back.
"The war is going to be a nightmare—a political nightmare for Trump. It has already been proven to be a pitfall for him, that he was pushed into by Netanyahu," commented Seyed Emamian, co-founder of the Governance and Policy Think Tank based in Tehran, in a recent exclusive interview with South.
Donald Trump salutes as an Army carry team moves the flag-draped transfer case containing the remains of U.S. Army Reserve on March 7, 2026 in Delaware, the US.
A blind war for Trump induced by Netanyahu
Israel has precise goals from the very first day of the joint strike, as Emamian analyzed. "Israelis have been looking for not only the denuclearization of Iran. They have been very much seeking the demilitarization of the country," he noted.
According to Emamian, what Israel attempts to attain is not only "a very much weakened Iran" but also a "Greater Israel," which implies that the whole Middle East region needs to be fully demilitarized.
The concept entails that a large proportion of the territory of several countries in the region should be annexed to the currently occupied lands. "Based on the Israeli-published map, they need to occupy large territories of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Iran," Emamian added.
Regarding the Americans, the Iranian scholar inferred that it's not a unified US target but rather strategic ambivalence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu succeeded in convincing or pushing US President Donald Trump to get involved without any clear target for him.
"So we have heard a lot of different attitudes from American policymakers, including Trump himself, Marco Rubio, and others," Emamian explained.
As he observed, Trump is looking for an escape route and a face-saving scenario to come out of this war quagmire. However, it seems that it's too late for the US President.
Emamian detailed that it has become a very much regional war, giving rise to disruptions in oil prices and the global energy supply chain. Major OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait have all reduced their oil production, leading to a surge in oil prices.
"There is a possibility of a crisis like the oil crisis back in the 1970s," he warned. "We don't know how long the energy supply from the region will be blocked, which depends on how the US and Israelis strike and how they are going to end such aggression."
The latest oil market report by the International Energy Agency revealed that the war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, and global supply is projected to drop by 8 million barrels per day in March.
Demonstrators gather with Iranian national flags for a rally in support of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Enghelab Square on March 9, 2026 in Tehran, Iran.
A ceasefire until Iranian minimum requirements are met
"Iran thinks the ceasefire after the strike last June by Israel on Iran was a failure," Emamian put it bluntly.
Due to Trump's behavior, Iranians perceive him and his actions as a betrayal of diplomacy and any kind of international law, order, and agreement.
"It won't be possible for Iran to go down that road again to have a ceasefire without ensuring that its minimum requirements are met," noted the Iranian scholar, such as the removal of all sanctions imposed on his country.
Notably, he underscored the election of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, which is a political response to safeguard the sovereignty of the country.
"His election was framed by a high public demand from society to respond to the attacks by Israelis and Americans," added Emamian.
In his eyes, the generational shift in political leadership would provide many opportunities for reforming the governance system towards a more inclusive, less polarized political landscape. At the same time, it redefines Iranian international relations and sets a new phase of Iranian development.
"So there is a lot of hope for him, particularly regarding his wide connections with younger scientists and innovative generations in Iran," he noted.
Reporter | Zhang Ruijun
Video & Poster | Guo Hongda
Photo | CFP
