Gunpowder smoke hangs over the Middle East again. Small explosive drones and Israeli fighter aircraft rent the midnight sky of Iran on June 13 to attack the nuclear facilities.
"This is Israel's war on Iran. So I think it's very important for everyone to know that this war is imposed on Iran in violation of every international law and norm."
This statement came during GDToday's recent exclusive interview with Dr. Seyed Sadegh Emamian, co-founder and former director of the Governance and Policy Think Tank based in Tehran, Iran.
Fire and smoke rise into the sky after an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot on June 15, 2025 in Tehran, Iran. (CFP Photo)
Israel aims at weakening Iran as a civilizational root
The reason behind Operation Rising Lion, launched by Israel on June 13, as Emamian analyzed, is the identity of Israel as an occupational, genocidal, expansionist political project in the region.
"Look at what has happened in the last 70 years. Israel has invaded almost all the countries around the current borders that they call Israel," he underscored.
Emamian listed the countries of Palestine, Jordan, Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon. All of them have been invaded or occupied by Israel during the past 70 years.
Based on such practical evidence viewed through a historical lens, he noted that Israel's war on Iran is another project that the country has subsequently conducted in the last 70 years.
According to Emamian, Israel has been considering for a long time finding a moment to attack Iran, not only to demilitarize Iran, as they have been voicing a lot.
"They are looking, to some extent, to weaken Iran as a civilizational root. They are very much thinking about dividing Iran and eliminating Iran as a historical identity," he added.
Rocket trails are seen in the sky above the Israeli coastal city of Netanya amid a fresh barrage of Iranian missile attacks on June 19, 2025. (CFP Photo)
Without the U.S. direct involvement, the war would be over in a short period
Among the many uncertainties in the Israel-Iran conflict, Emamian highlighted the extent of U.S. intervention. He projects that without U.S. direct involvement, the war would be over in a short period.
As Emamian notes, there is a constantly shifting position from the U.S. administration now, particularly from Trump himself and his administration.
This capricious president stated on June 19 that he would decide within two weeks whether the U.S. military would get directly involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Regarding the conflict, the U.S. was very clear that it was not going to intervene. "This is Israel's war on Iran, or what they call the Israel-Iran conflict. And they were looking for mediation or a ceasefire," Emamian noted.
This statement is due to, as he noted, significant resistance within Trump's camp. If Trump is going to enter such a damaging and important war, that would replicate the actions of previous U.S. governments, which Trump has always promised to differentiate himself from.
Nonetheless, due to Trump's ego-seeking personality and his opportunistic approach, as Emamian analyzed, the U.S. president is looking at what is happening on the ground and will want to be seen as the hero at the end of the war.
Notably, Emamian pointed out that the message the U.S. ambassador to Israel sent to President Trump was very ideologically biased, showing admiration and seduction for Trump to get involved.
According to Emamian, this message reveals the status quo of U.S. politics, which is heavily influenced by ideology and affected by lobbying and money.
As the Iranian think tank founder observes, almost all Israeli weapons are from the U.S., but Israel cannot win the war by itself; it has been significantly damaged.
He cited news that Israeli air defense could withstand Iranian missiles to some extent, but is now very vulnerable. He predicted that the Israeli air defense would collapse in the next 10-12 days.
For Emamian, the top priority is whether the U.S. administration will be rational or will take a very adventurous and ideologically biased approach, aiming for a heroic or Armageddon-style involvement.
Reporter: Zhang Ruijun
Video: Liang Zijian
Poster: Cai Junru
Script: Zhang Ruijun
Editor: Yuan Zixiang, James, Shen He
