Ivan Danilin is interviewed exclusively by South on August 23, 2026, in Guangzhou.
As the 33rd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting approaches in Shenzhen this November, it is time to review the achievements made and challenges ahead for the Asia Pacific.
Since APEC was established in 1989 with 12 founding member economies, GDP in the region surged from $18.8 trillion to $61.4 trillion in 2025 with 21 member economies, accounting for 61.6 percent of the world's total.
"The most important trend that we envision for the last 10 years is the changing role of the Asia Pacific in the global innovation system and global high-tech markets," noted Ivan Danilin, Deputy Director for Scientific Work at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Russia, in a recent exclusive interview with South.
Russian economist details new trends and challenges in the Asia-Pacific region
After his speech titled Asia-Pacific High Technology Sector: New Trends and Challenges Amid Rising External Pressures at an academic conference held in Guangzhou in late August, Danilin further elaborated on his observations of new trajectories in the region.
"Unlike the previous decade, when it was much more of a manufacturing base, China, as well as other developing and developed economies in the Asia Pacific, has now created enough potential to become new centers, both for innovation and high-tech manufacturing," he underscored.
According to Danilin, this is marked by the US efforts to stop this process since 2018, when President Donald Trump levied tariffs on China and other economies within the Asia Pacific, which could also be taken as an indicator of the region's success.
Despite all these tariffs, the growth of the region remained quite resilient. Data from the World Bank shows that GDP growth in East Asia and the Pacific region has stayed above 3 percent since 1989 despite the Asian financial crisis (1998), the global financial crisis (2009) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020).
"We see it both in terms of the export of high-tech goods and foreign direct investments and local investments made in the high-tech sector," he added. The 2026 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index by Kearney's Global Business Policy Council found that the Asia-Pacific region claimed the largest share of the ranked markets for the first time in more than a decade.
Notably, the Russian economist highlighted the regional developmental challenge, namely, creating a more economically integrated Asia Pacific.
He said bluntly that a big Asia-Pacific common market is about economic integration, capital and financial market integration, and joint efforts in different high technology innovation areas.
"How this issue would be solved and what would be the final results of this would shape the future not of Asia, but of the globe as well," Danilin said.
In this regard, he expected this Shenzhen event would create new important results for this process. "This will be one of the pivotal issues for global development for the years to come," he added.
Ivan Danilin (C) delivers his speech on the Asia Pacific on August 23, 2026, in Guangzhou.
China contributes to APEC economies' progress due to China+1 mindset
As for China's contribution to the development of the Asia Pacific, Danilin said the country is one of the economic drivers of this regional integration and one of the key regional investors in high technology areas due to the China+1 mindset.
He cited Shenzhen as an example, pointing to Shenzhen Lomonosov Moscow State University and Beijing Institute of Technology, established in 2016, which is a close partner of his institution. Shenzhen was chosen by the then Chinese leadership to demonstrate new high-tech innovation and Chinese socialist advancements.
In Danilin's eyes, the history of Shenzhen, which rose in just 30 years from a small town to one of the global clusters in high technology, innovation and science, can be a clear message for the APEC developing and some developed economies.
"How these rational free trade, public support, inclusive engagement of population and investment in human capital can transform regional economic systems, and create a far better future and a stronger presence, which is not less important for both APEC and globally," he claimed.
"China, with its huge financial technology and human capital resources, could play a very important role in further integrating and supporting growth in the APEC region, generally," he concluded.
Ivan Danilin delivers his speech on the Asia Pacific on August 23, 2026, in Guangzhou.
How APEC economies can secure a sustainable and inclusive growth
The Asia Pacific region, unlike parts of Europe with their strategic autonomy ideology, supports further integration and trade liberalization, as Danilin observed.
"APEC can show to other regions the importance of pro-cooperative, rather than pro-conflict approach in the global economy," he noted.
When it comes to inclusive growth within the region, the Russian economist is confident that APEC economies are doing quite well. "Poverty in the Asia Pacific is shrinking. This is an important milestone globally as the last 40 years have been crucially important for solving this problem."
Nonetheless, as for sustainable growth, Danilin acknowledged that we all face important challenges. Trends of intensive economic growth are present in APEC economies, especially in the developing economies.
One of the vital roles for China, in his view, is disseminating the best practices and technologies in the region to prevent disastrous consequences for environmental systems.
"This is a challenge for the next 10 to 15 years," Danilin projected. He argued that, considering the scope of the economic effects and potential environmental damage that could occur, this is an agenda that should be put on top of the APEC discussions and possibly for global cooperation as well.
Additionally, Danilin identified specific domains where China and Russia could collaborate, such as basic research, in which both sides can complement each other in the region, ultimately creating a better and more predictable future.
He listed AI development, as Igor Sechin, the president of the Russian state oil company Rosneft, put it in some of his recent interviews and speeches.
"The development of AI also requires reliable energy, infrastructure and supply. This is why our systems are quite complementary," he added.
Reporter | Zhang Ruijun
Photos | Zhang Ruijun
