James Heckman receives an exclusive interview with South in Shenzhen on March 20, 2026. (South Photo)
The US-Israel joint military strike against Iran has dragged on into the fourth week. The gunpowder ahead of the Middle East plunges people in the region into ruin and destruction once again.
"I can't prophesy what's going to happen in Iran. But based on everything I've ever seen, I can't imagine that bombing a bunch of people is gonna make them come begging to you," noted James Heckman, the 2000 Nobel laureate in economics, in an exclusive interview with South recently. He warns that the relentless bombing would "probably intensify the hatred."
Benjamin Netanyahu leaves a news conference in Jerusalem on March 19, 2026, amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran.
A strong Israel lobby actively works to shape U.S. foreign policy in a pro-Israel direction
Heckman analyzed that Israel wants to continue the war and seeks the Americans to help them. But there's a whole discussion in America about this issue.
He highlighted his colleague John Mearsheimer at the University of Chicago, noting that Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, a professor at Harvard University, underscored the remarkable level of material and diplomatic support the U.S. provides to Israel, arguing that this support cannot be fully explained on either strategic or moral grounds.
"But there is not much listening to Mearsheimer in the U.S.," Heckman lamented. He further explained that a strong pro-Israel lobby, including philanthropists and billionaires, actively works to shape U.S. foreign policy.
"As a result, it's crazy for us to be following Netanyahu and doing this in concert, especially without a goal," Heckman noted, "let alone he is in serious political trouble himself in Israel at present with fraud."
Donald Trump speaks to the press before he departs the White House en route to Miami, Florida, in Washington, D.C., on March 20, 2026.
It's very dangerous to exaggerate given the status quo
Due to a strong incentive to exaggerate for politicians, U.S. President Donald Trump is now very grandiose in his rhetoric regarding the war with Iran, as Heckman observed.
"In the current environment, it's very dangerous to exaggerate, especially given the ongoing warfare, bombed people, and surging oil prices," he noted.
Trump stated that he could keep the Strait of Hormuz open and bring oil prices back to normal in a couple of months, as the Americans are very confident they can create a military force to open the Strait of Hormuz.
"It's not clear that they can do so, given that the Iranians can attack U.S. ships with drones," Heckman noted.
Additionally, Trump has requested $200 billion more to cover the cost of his war in Iran. The Pentagon asked Congress for this budget last week. Heckman believes the budget will not pass in Congress, as Republicans do not have enough votes.
Moreover, the Department of Homeland Security has been shut down for a month, leaving government employees unpaid. Now, on top of this, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans will budge, as Heckman projected.
Heckman reminded that people have to be wary of the negative fallout on the economy of the U.S. and worldwide brought about by the war. Wall Street has cut its forecasts for the U.S. economy in 2026. Goldman Sachs says the risk of a downturn over the next 12 months has risen to 30% as a result of the surge in oil prices.
Trump claimed he could create a new supply. However, Iran can still choke off the supply of oil. "How can he control all the beaches of Iran without sending troops?" asked Heckman.
A woman is walking by the rubble of the buildings that were targeted by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in Tehran on March 21, 2026.
Bombing has never worked in this way
The newly published survey on March 26 by the Pew Research Center underpinned his corollary, which finds that a majority of Americans (61%) disapprove of Trump's handling of the conflict.
"America has been very unsuccessful in winning people's support by bombing cities," Heckman stated bluntly. He detailed three cases of the U.S.'s attempts to change Vietnam and Afghanistan through bombing for two decades, and Iraq for nine years.
In every one of those cases, Heckman analyzed that the U.S. tended to resolve the will of the people who were bombed. But they got angry and wanted to protest. He can't imagine the Iranians are any different when they get bombed.
"Many Iranians suffer through all these bombings and survive. Do they want to change their government? No. They will fight hard and resist the Americans," he noted.
He cautioned that the U.S. will probably make more Iranians bitter and hate America even more, as many will have a child, a father, a mother, or someone who was killed by an American bomb.
Reporter | Zhang Ruijun
Photo | CFP
