On June 22, peace advocates worldwide heaved a sigh of relief, witnessing the postponed first round of peace talks between the US and Iran in Switzerland after a marathon 18-hour negotiation and the ensuing encouraging progress based on a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on June 18.
"It's a very hopeful and exciting prospect. But a lot of complexities are emerging, almost on a daily basis," Seyed Emamian, Co-founder of a Tehran-based governance and policy think tank, told South in a recent exclusive interview.
Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif, serving as the mediator, signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding in Islamabad on June 18, 2026.
Arduous efforts of brokering countries
"Officially, Pakistanis serve as messengers and mediators between the US and Iran. They have put in a great deal of effort, and we are grateful to them," Emamian noted. He added that their collective efforts were aimed at bringing peace to the region and, to some extent, reshaping its regional security architecture.
As for Persian Gulf countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, Emamian detailed that, for the sake of their own security, they have been pushed into an unwanted war by the Americans, who were supposed to guarantee their security. However, the guarantor of their security became the warmonger force in the region.
It was a very counterproductive role that the Americans played with their specific Arab neighbors of Iran around the Persian Gulf. While Iranians were very open to enhancing relationships with their neighbors, Persian Gulf countries have come to Iran even during the war and after the war to strengthen bilateral ties.
Notably, Emamian hailed China's moral stance—its commitment to non-intervention in the region, its support for peace, and its condemnation of aggression.
He projected that the new international order would be much more towards multilateralism, rather than the unilateralism that the US was expecting to continue. "This has provided space for countries like China to play a much more active role in this peace-building and mediation in the region," Emamian stated.
Economically, China is not only positioned along the region's energy supply routes, but also serves as a market for Chinese commodities, as he observes.
Flags of the US, Qatar, Iran, Pakistan, Switzerland's Nidwalden and Switzerland, from left, are seen at the Burgenstock Resort in Obbuergen, Switzerland, on June 21, 2026.
Lingering considerations of the peace process
For all the encouraging progress made, the Iranian scholar grapples with three concerns ahead of the next phase of negotiations between the two sides during a 60-day period.
"First of all, we need to ensure the full implementation of the current MoU that was signed a few days ago," Emamian highlighted. He underscored that the US needs to find a solution to curb Israel's aggression, as Israeli sabotage is highly expected and has already happened several times.
Then he detailed the complexities surrounding Iran's nuclear issue. This issue was discussed and previously agreed upon in 2015 under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, following Trump's withdrawal in 2018, the JCPOA turned from a success to a failure.
The final concern, he noted, would be a highly polarized sociopolitical context in both Iran and the US. A large proportion of Iranian society and high-ranking politicians including the Supreme Leader, according to Emamian's observation, are very doubtful about the value of any talks with the US. "They view relying on or thrusting themselves on the US as a very simplistic and naive belief for politicians to hold."
A general view of the room ahead of a quadrilateral meeting between the US, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar at the Burgenstock luxury hotel complex, Switzerland, on June 21, 2026.
A long shadow of the saga
Since February 28 of this year, the US and Israel's war on Iran has devastated the Middle East economically and geopolitically, casting a long shadow over the region. Now, the dawn of peace is approaching over the tortured land.
As Emamian analyzed, it's very clear that the region won't return to its pre-February 28 state. There won't be any chance for intra- and extra-regional superpowers to build up military forces around the Iranian borders. There won't be any chance for Israelis to come closer to the Iranian borders to establish bases for plotting and intelligence operations in the territory of some of Iran's neighbors.
For most of the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, they have come to three conclusions.
There won't be any chance for them to rely on the US security umbrella anymore. There won't be any chance to be an island of safety, security, and prosperity at the same time to threaten directly or indirectly a very important mainland in the northern part of the Persian Gulf.
Emamian confessed that the region is far away from a full settlement of a new security architecture to be in place. "We need to be very much cooperative, constructive, and collaborative with all the players in the region to come to such a new security framework that would be much more inclusive and indigenous, rather than something that has already been experienced before," he raised a cry of warning.
Reporter | Zhang Ruijun
Photo | CFP
