On December 8, local time Sunday, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was said to have left Syria and resigned as the country's president while calling for a peaceful transfer of power, according to a statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (Photo: Xinhua)
The Syrian National Coalition, a main Syrian opposition group, seized control of the capital of Damascus and vowed on the same day to continue working towards the transfer of authority to a transitional governing body with full executive powers to usher in a free, democratic, and pluralistic Syria.
Three powerful explosions rocked Syria's capital, Damascus, on the afternoon of the same day, hours after the opposition fighters declared control of the city and the end of President Bashar al-Assad's rule.
Lebanon said it was closing all its land border crossings with Syria except for one that links Beirut with Damascus. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced in a statement that it "has deployed forces in the buffer zone and other areas deemed necessary for defense." Jordan closed a border crossing with Syria, too.
Foreign expats in Syria were urgently informed beforehand to leave the country for safety. The rapidly developing events have shaken the region and drawn immediate attention across the globe.
What has led to the escalation of the situation overnight in Syria? What does the future hold for the fragile nation as insurgents take over power? GDToday spoke to experts specializing in Middle East issues to get a clear picture of the situation on the ground.
What led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad, a decades-long dynasty?
"I am surprised at how fast the insurgents entered and took over Damascus," said Wen Jing, a scholar at the Center for International Security and Strategy, Tsinghua University. "There's no head-on confrontation between the Syrian government and the Syrian National Coalition, the opposition forces, which, in some ways, implies that the al-Assad government had seen it coming. Like somehow prepared."
People gathered in Syria. (Photo: Xinhua)
In the view of Wang Jin, professor of Northwest University of China, al-Assad's loss of power is the result of various factors.
On the diplomatic side, Wang pointed out the cause of the power imbalance in supporting parties. "Russia and Iran have reduced their support towards the Syrian government, while Turkey and the United States have leaned more support towards the opposition forces," he analyzed. Over the year, Russia was mired in its conflict with Ukraine, with less attention to aiding Syria.
Hezbollah in Lebanon, another close ally of the Syrian government, has in fact weakened its support for Syria in the game after it got swamped up in escalated military conflicts with Israel in October, added Wang.
"When it comes to military tactics, Syrian rebels used a vast number of drone attacks, which are way more flexible than the heavy weapons and armor cluster attacks used by the Syrian government forces. It is an unbeatable foe to fight," Wang said.
As Wen concluded, the crippled economy and years-long turbulence in Syria were the fundamental problems to trace. Wen underlined that Syria has suffered from turbulence since its civil war in 2011. Subjected to sanctions by the West, Syria has been plagued by extreme poverty in recent years. The government has just failed to navigate the path ahead for its people.
"A lot of people would deem Syria a great place to learn Arabic culture and language before the year 2011," Wen said. "However, even a professor now working at a university in Damascus is paid only $20 a month. Life has become hard for civilians, and the Syrian government has very little to spend on armies as well."
Wang depicted a devastated economy in Syria, especially this year. "Syria has experienced fast devaluation of currencies. Inflation is surging. Social welfare and social subsidies have been abolished in many places. Unemployment rates are high," Wang detailed. "People are struggling in life. They have shifted views on the government."
He said whatever keeps an army comes down to the people of the country. When people are in bad shape in Syria, they just surrender and flee before even starting a fight.
Regional instability to intensify in both Syria and Middle East
As the transfer of power is now underway to the Syrian opposition forces, Wen stated that the major dilemma would still be political instability in the country for the next five to ten years.
Syria is now being held by more than one force against Bashar al-Assad's government, with the Syrian Kurdish armed forces being one of them. With outer support, the Syrian Kurdish armed forces took control of parts of land in northern Syria.
"Even if the power is peacefully transferred to the new government, I still think Syria will remain politically and economically unstable, as we have no clue so far what policies the Syrian opposition forces will adopt," Wen said.
Professor Wang underscored the major issue of a possible resurgence of Islamism after the Syrian National Coalition seized power. "The Syrian National Coalition and HTS, for example, are both groups with a tendency toward religious extremism in the region," he said. "If the country wants to build a stable future, the Syrian National Coalition needs to hold talks with the Syrian Kurdish armed forces, watering down the role of religion in politics, which is a big challenge for the parties among the opposition forces."
According to Wen, the fall of the Syrian government would cause further chaos to regional stability in the Middle East and bring changes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
"So in this context, I think it is counterproductive. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is affecting Syria. In turn, the situation in Syria will affect the conflict. The Middle East will become more chaotic and more difficult to predict," Wen said.
Syria was an ally in the regional power alliance, 'axis of resistance', with Iran, Palestinian armed groups, and Hezbollah of Lebanon. "With Syria now leaving, the strength of the alliance will surely be crippled in combating Israel," Wen pointed out.
In addition, Israel took over the Golan Heights from Syria. With a change of power in Syria, Wen said the region will suffer from greater instability.
Israel has set military forces at Golan Heights. (Photo: Xinhua)
"For Israel, it is afraid of regional changes in Syria, especially around the area of the Golan Heights. I think it might keep an eye on this place and attempt to carry out some raids on ammunition depots in Syria," Wang said.
According to Phoenix TV on December 8, the opposition faction indicated that the former prime minister of Syria would keep governing the country temporarily.
Reporter | Guo Zedong, Liu Xiaodi
Editor | Yuan Zixiang, James, Shen He
