The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are determining how much room President Donald Trump has to pursue his agenda during the final two years of his term.
Americans went to the polls on November 3 local time to elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 35 senators and governors in 36 states. As vote counting continued on November 4, the final balance of power in Congress had yet to be determined.
The Washington Post reported on the evening of November 3 local time that Democrats were projected to regain control of the House. The Cook Political Report forecast that they could make a net gain of 15 to 25 seats.
Trump has made clear how much is at stake. In an interview published on November 2, he warned that "if we lose, America is finished." The result will shape the balance of power in Washington and could affect the president's ability to advance his domestic agenda.
Cost of living weighs on Republicans
Affordability has been one of the central issues in the election. A recent survey found that around 78 percent of respondents considered rising living costs a very important or the most important factor in deciding how to vote.
The issue poses a challenge for Republicans, who returned to the White House promising to address economic concerns but have yet to deliver the relief many voters hoped for.
Diao Daming, vice dean of the National Academy of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China, said the Republicans had failed to tackle affordability effectively, while some of their policies had made the situation worse.
"Midterm elections are generally unfavorable to the sitting president and the party in power," Diao told South, describing the vote as a midterm assessment of the administration's performance.
Public dissatisfaction over the cost of living is weighing on Republican candidates, he said.
During his final campaign speech near the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington on November 2, Trump highlighted renovation work on the pool and several public buildings. Affordability, however, remained a major concern for voters.
Young voters grow weary of politics
Economic pressure is also shaping how younger Americans view politics.
Data from credit reporting company TransUnion shows that Americans aged 22 to 24 in Generation Z had higher average balances on credit cards, auto loans and personal loans in 2024 than millennials of the same age had a decade earlier, even after adjusting for inflation.
Diao said some young people were becoming increasingly detached from political participation because neither party had adequately addressed their concerns.
"The Biden administration struggled with inflation and the cost of living, and the Trump administration has also failed to resolve these problems," he said.
When young people see little improvement in issues that directly affect their lives, they may become disillusioned with the political system and less willing to participate, Diao added. He sees this growing political fatigue as a sign of deeper problems in American politics.
Iran conflict adds to pressure on the administration
The conflict involving Iran has added another challenge for the Trump administration, with consequences for both foreign policy and the domestic economy.
The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, which began in late February, has continued for more than eight months. An estimate from U.S. Central Command, provided to the Pentagon and shared with Congress, put the cost of the campaign at about $47.1 billion as of October 16. The estimate included spending on operations, replacing munitions and equipment losses, but excluded damage to U.S. military facilities caused by Iranian attacks.
Continued instability in the Middle East could also disrupt energy markets and push up oil prices, adding pressure to fuel and transportation costs in the United States.
The administration has proposed a $1.5 trillion defense budget for the 2027 fiscal year. The proposal would require congressional approval.
Diao said that even if Democrats gained control of both chambers, they would have limited ability to decisively constrain Trump's foreign policy. The president would retain considerable room to act, although Congress would continue to exercise important powers, including control over federal spending.
A divided Congress could constrain Trump's agenda
Trump has already outlined how he might respond if Democrats take control of either chamber of Congress.
In an exclusive phone interview with CBS News correspondent Robert Costa on November 3, Trump said he was prepared to use his presidential veto power and welcomed the prospect of being called "Mr. Veto." He suggested that repeated vetoes could eventually force Democrats to negotiate.
"Historically, you veto for a couple of months and then they come and say, 'We've got to make a deal,'" Trump said.
He also indicated that he could make greater use of executive powers if Democrats tried to limit his authority through Congress. Trump cited a recent Supreme Court ruling, arguing that it gave the president greater power over the federal government.
In the same interview, Trump said he had attended 33 major rallies in 29 days and claimed his campaign appearances had helped Republicans avert a potential Democratic "blue wave." This was his own assessment of the impact of his campaigning.
Congress has substantial powers to shape federal policy and oversee the executive branch. Both chambers must pass legislation, while the Senate also confirms key presidential nominees, including cabinet members and federal judges. The House can initiate impeachment proceedings, with the Senate responsible for conducting trials.
A Democratic-controlled House could step up investigations into the administration. Control of the Senate would also give Democrats greater influence over legislation and presidential appointments.
Diao said that if Democrats controlled both chambers, Trump could face political gridlock. White House-backed legislation would become harder to pass, while bills approved by Congress could face a presidential veto. Overriding a veto requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers.
Trump could still use executive orders to advance his agenda, but these could face legal challenges, making their implementation less predictable, Diao said.
Reporter: Yao Jingsen
Photos: Xinhua
