Just 90 minutes before his self-imposed deadline, Donald Trump blinked. As Professor Zhao Yongsheng of the University of International Business and Economics puts it, "Trump doesn't want a protracted war; he was aiming for a swift, Venezuela-style hit—but now the conflict has dragged into the fourth week."
On April 7, Trump announced a two-week suspension of U.S. strikes on Iran, contingent on Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He had earlier warned that otherwise Iran's "entire civilization" would be wiped out, a threat that prompted an unusual rebuke from Pope Leo XIV, who called it "utterly unacceptable."
Iranians react to the ceasefire announcement at the Enqelab square, in Tehran, on April 8, 2026.
Hours before the ceasefire, Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution aimed at protecting shipping in the strait, dismissing it as "biased against Iran."
Israel went along with the truce, but with a conspicuous "except Lebanon" footnote. Iran, which had spent weeks claiming "no talks under fire," abruptly shifted course, submitting a ten-point ceasefire proposal through Pakistan.
Professor Wang Jianwei, Director of the Macao Center for Regional and Strategic Studies, describes the move as classic Trump. "He talks the toughest game, then pulls back at the eleventh hour," Wang says. "It's like what Richard Nixon did before the Vietnam War—you escalate to project strength, then withdraw." He also points to the role of quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomacy: Pakistan acted as an intermediary, while Beijing may have discreetly encouraged a critical shift."
At the regular press conference of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on April 8, spokesperson Mao Ning said that China has been actively working to promote peace and de-escalation. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held 26 telephone conversations with foreign ministers of relevant countries. The Chinese government's special envoy for the Middle East made shuttle visits to the Middle East and the Gulf region. China and Pakistan also jointly put forward a five-point initiative aimed at restoring peace and stability in the Gulf and the Middle East.
Why Trump hit the brake?
As noted by experts, Trump never signed up for a grind. "He wanted a Venezuela-style blitz—short, sharp, and decisive," Zhao says. "But now it's dragging. That's not his playbook." The war has hit U.S. inflation harder and faster than he expected. "The boomerang came back," Zhao reflects, "Higher energy prices hit American voters first, then rippled outward to Europe, and then to China."
U.S. President Donald J Trump speaks during a press conference in the James Brady Briefing Room of the White House in Washington D.C., on April 6, 2026.
The administration had promised that gas prices would fall quickly once the conflict stopped and the strait reopened. But right before the truce, retail gasoline averaged $4.14 per gallon, and diesel stood at $5.64—just below its 2022 peak of $5.82.
So, Trump's real goal? To save face, declare victory, and clear the decks ahead of his China trip next month. He can hardly show up in Beijing with a war still burning.
On Capitol Hill, both parties welcomed the ceasefire, but Democrats kept grilling Trump for launching the war without congressional approval—as well as for his remark about "wiping out a civilization".
Iran's pivot: from "never" to "let's talk."
For weeks, Iran maintained that no talks were underway until it abruptly came up with a ten-point list.
"It's an asymmetrical war," Zhao says bluntly. "Bravery isn't enough when the tech gap is this wide." Iran has lost dozens of commanders, key bridges, and is down to human chains. "Under extreme pressure, Tehran needed a dignified way out. The ten points are essentially a face-saving mechanism—signaling, 'we're not beaten; we're negotiating.'"
An information and communication technology building at Sharif University of Technology in western Tehran was damaged by a U.S.–Israeli airstrike.
"Iran called Trump's bluff. He was never going to wipe out an entire civilization." Wang said. Also, Iran had already shown flexibility even before the war erupted (including moves such as shipping enriched uranium abroad). "A pause now helps both sides: Trump gets a ceasefire; Iran gets some breathing room."
Still, the ceasefire did not hold uniformly. The morning after the announcement, new missile and drone strikes were reported across the Gulf—with Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain all saw incoming fire.
That's because Iranian local commanders operate with significant autonomy; they can launch strikes without waiting for orders from Tehran. And Israel kept hitting Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, where its ground operations have already drawn tens of thousands of troops.
Iran's ten demands—how much can really happen?
Iran's ten-point proposal includes demands ranging from control of the Strait of Hormuz to full sanctions relief and war reparations.
As Zhao concludes, the ten demands fall into three categories: realistic ones, pipe dreams, and those likely to be heavily revised.
The realistic ones: managing the Strait of Hormuz (though likely as a U.S.–Iran joint deal, not Iran alone), ending attacks on Hezbollah and other "resistance" groups, halting all frontline fighting for the truce period, and unfreezing some Iranian assets abroad. "The first, second, and ninth items have real chances," Zhao says.
In fact, Iran's foreign minister has already announced safe passage through the strait for two weeks—a concrete first step, though it remains unclear whether Iran will allow any ship to pass or what tolls might be charged.
The semi-realistic: lifting most—but not all—sanctions, and accepting Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy (no bombs). "The U.S. will keep some cards in its hand," Wang notes.
The fantasy items: full U.S. troop withdrawal from the Middle East, full war reparations, and a legally binding UN Security Council resolution. "Impossible," says Zhao. "The U.S. will never pay cash reparations. At most, they might set up a toll system for the strait—say 30% for the U.S., 70% for Iran—as a hidden form of compensation." As for a UN resolution, Zhao says: "Meaningless. The U.S. can tear it up anytime."
Wang warns about Israel. "Netanyahu already said the ceasefire doesn't apply to Lebanon. Iran can't abandon Hezbollah. That's a live fuse." And here's the kicker: even after the ceasefire was announced, Israeli air forces kept striking targets inside Iran, according to Israeli media.
So the truce looks shaky from day one. Pakistan's prime minister had claimed the deal applied "everywhere, including Lebanon"—but Netanyahu publicly contradicted him within hours.
What comes next?
Right now it's just two weeks of quiet—nothing more. Iran's ten demands will get watered down in real talks. Israel's "Lebanon exception" and its ongoing strikes inside Iran could blow everything up again.
The human toll so far is staggering: over 1,600 civilians dead in Iran, more than 1,500 in Lebanon, at least 20 in Israel, and 13 American service members killed. And on the economic front, the relief might be short-lived.
As noted, a two-week ceasefire likely means another two weeks of minimal traffic through the strait, which could keep oil, gasoline, and diesel prices climbing.
But for now, both Washington and Tehran have stepped back from the edge. As Zhao puts it, "Neither side wanted to be a loser. They both need to claim victory." And if some hedge funds got a tip before the oil crash? Well, that's just business as usual in Trump's Washington.
Reporter: Guo Zedong
Photo: CFP
