As the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaches, southern China's record-breaking "Dragon Boat Water" rainy spell is beginning to ease, but forecasters are urging travellers to remain cautious.
Over the past week, torrential downpours have drenched the region, and some sites saw extreme downpours. In Lufeng, Shanwei, 24-hour rainfall reached 709.1 mm, nearly three times the 250 mm daily threshold for an extreme rainstorm. Other hard-hit locations included Donggang Town in Huilai County, Jieyang; Chuandao Town in Taishan, Jiangmen; and Xinhu Subdistrict in Guangming District, Shenzhen.
The southwest monsoon, the main driver of the Dragon Boat Water season, strengthened after the South China Sea summer monsoon became fully established in early June. Although it arrived slightly later than usual, this year's monsoon has ranged from near-normal to above-normal strength, transporting abundant moisture from the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea into Guangdong. Its interaction with cold air and uplift over terrain triggered persistent downpours.
The heaviest rain is expected to persist on June 18, particularly across the stretch from western Guangdong to the Pearl River Estuary, where heavy to extreme rain is forecast. From June 19, however, the subtropical high is expected to strengthen and push the monsoon northward, significantly reducing rainfall across Guangdong. The rain belt will shift toward the Yangtze-Huaihe region and North China.
Guangdong weather forecast (June 18 to 20)
● June 18: Heavy to extreme rain, with localized torrential downpours, is forecast from western Guangdong to the Pearl River Estuary. Heavy rain is expected in the northern and central Pearl River Delta, while other areas will see scattered showers. Highs will range from 27°C to 31°C in most areas and from 31°C to 34°C on the Leizhou Peninsula.
● June 19: Moderate to heavy rain is forecast in northern and western Guangdong, as well as the western Pearl River Delta. Elsewhere, skies will be cloudy with showers. Highs will range from 28°C to 32°C in eastern and northern Guangdong and from 32°C to 34°C in western and central areas.
● June 20: Light rain is forecast in northern Guangdong, while most other areas will be partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs will rise to 33°C to 36°C in many places.
Guangzhou forecast
● June 18: Overcast with heavy to torrential rain. Temperatures will range from 24°C to 29°C.
● June 19: Cloudy with thundershowers and localized heavy rain. Temperatures will range from 25°C to 31°C.
● June 20: Cloudy with scattered thundershowers. Temperatures will range from 27°C to 32°C.
Safety reminders
● Rainfall will weaken but will not disappear overnight. Take care during dragon boat races, outdoor work, and coastal or island tours, as sudden downpours and severe convective weather remain possible.
● Prolonged heavy rain has left soils saturated and rivers swollen. Remain alert to flash floods, landslides, and other secondary geological hazards, especially in previously affected areas.
Author | Jiang Chang
Photo | Nanfang Plus
