The U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran entered its 20th day on March 19, with fresh strikes on Iran's North Pars gas field and retaliatory attacks on energy facilities across the Gulf, pushing oil prices higher and raising fears of a broader global energy shock.
At the same time, Israel has intensified its decapitation campaign, killing Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the Basij volunteer force, and Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib, which has triggered further Iranian retaliation.
Yet behind the escalating strikes lies a more complex picture: diverging objectives between Washington and Tel Aviv, an Iranian system under pressure but not necessarily destabilized, and a widening risk that the conflict could spill into the global energy system.
A woman looks through a damaged wall of a residential building after a nearby police station was struck two days earlier in a U.S.-Israeli attack in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Photo: CFP)
Diverging goals beneath a shared campaign
While the U.S. and Israel have coordinated militarily, analysts said their strategic endgames are not fully aligned—a gap that is becoming increasingly visible in how the war is being fought.
Li Shaoxian, honorary director of the China-Arab States Research Institute at Ningxia University, said that although both initially signaled support for regime change in Iran, their priorities have since diverged.
"Israel's objective goes beyond regime change," Li said. "It is seeking to fundamentally weaken, even dismantle Iran as a state actor. The U.S., by contrast, has shifted toward more limited goals, such as destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities and degrading its military strength."
That difference is now reflected in targeting patterns. Israeli strikes have expanded to energy infrastructure—a move Washington appears more cautious about, given the risk of wider instability in global markets.
"Targeting Iran's energy facilities is effectively striking at the country's lifeline—and that is a very dangerous signal," Li said. He noted that the U.S. had already voiced concerns after Israeli strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure on March 10.
The attack on the North Pars gas field, followed by Iranian strikes on energy facilities linked to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, suggests the conflict may be opening a more dangerous front.
According to Li, Tehran's response is not simply retaliatory. By threatening energy assets in the Gulf—where U.S. investment is substantial—Iran is seeking to raise the cost of escalation and pressure regional actors to restrain Israel.
Li added that so far, both sides appear to be calibrating their actions. Strikes have remained limited in scale, suggesting an effort to avoid crossing a threshold that could trigger a broader energy crisis. But the margin for error is narrowing.
An explosion erupts after air strikes near Azadi Tower, close to Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, March 7, 2026. (Photo: CFP)
The killing of Larijani: shock without collapse
The assassination of Larijani marks one of the most significant blows to Iran's wartime leadership.
According to Li, Larijani had effectively become a central coordinator of Iran's response following the reported death of former supreme leader Ali Khamenei. "His role was not only political but operational—he was, in practice, directing Iran's countermeasures," Li said.
Wang Jin, director of the Israeli Studies Program at Northwest University, noted that Larijani's killing could create a temporary vacuum in coordination, while Li cautioned against overstating its systemic impact.
"Iran is not governed by a single individual," Li said. "It is a system." Leadership roles, he added, can be filled relatively quickly, and Tehran has already moved to appoint senior figures, including veteran commanders, suggesting a degree of institutional continuity.
Li also warned that the effect of Israel's decapitation campaign could prove counterproductive. Rather than weakening Iran's resolve, the loss of senior figures may reinforce internal cohesion and strengthen the country's willingness to respond.
Iranian mourners take part in a funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, March 18, 2026. (Photo: CFP)
Intelligence, infiltration, and the rise of algorithmic warfare
Israel's ability to repeatedly target senior Iranian officials has drawn attention to the evolving nature of modern intelligence warfare.
Li attributed the success of these operations partly to long-term infiltration. "This is not something built in a few years," he said. "It reflects decades of intelligence penetration."
But both Li and Wang highlighted another factor: technology.
Wang pointed to what he described as a growing "technological gap," driven by the integration of AI, big data, and surveillance systems. These tools enable precise tracking of individuals' movements and behavioral patterns, significantly improving targeting accuracy.
"Even without definitive evidence of extensive infiltration, the use of AI-assisted data analysis can produce highly effective targeting," Wang said.
Despite pledges of retaliation, analysts said Iran is unlikely to replicate Israel's decapitation strategy in the near term.
"Such operations require two critical capabilities: highly precise intelligence and highly accurate strike systems," Li said. "Iran currently lacks both at the level demonstrated by Israel."
Wang agreed, noting that Iran's technological base and intelligence reach inside Israel are significantly more limited. "There is a clear asymmetry," he said.
Reporter | Liu Xiaodi
