Note: The following is an edited translation of a commentary from the Chinese-language "Commentaries on International Affairs."
German cars sold to China have risen in price.
Chinese consumers have not spoken out, but US blue-collar workers are beginning to worry. This seemingly puzzling scene is being staged in the context of the trade war provoked by the Trump administration. German cars have been among the first victims of Donald Trump's tariff policy: the victim on the surface is a German car company set up in the United States, and the potential victims are the employment opportunities of American auto workers.
On July 30th, Germany's BMW Motors increased the sales price of two of its sport utility vehicles, which are produced in the US and exported to China, by 4 percent and 7 percent respectively due to increased costs. It is not difficult to find the reasons for the increase in costs, as the price of globally-purchased parts for American-made BMWs has risen since the Trump administration launched a trade offensive against multiple countries and on multiple lines. At the same time, as one of the counter-measures against the United States, China began imposing a 25 percent increase on the newly-implemented 15 percent tariff on imported cars from the United States on July 6th. This amounts to a 40 percent tax. This means that the market share of name-brand cars with US origins will be reduced due to price increases.
When the White House fired the first shot in the trade war against its major trading partners by levying tariffs on steel and aluminum, many industry insiders noted that cars and electronic products would likely be the first to bear the brunt. This is because the world's largest automakers are heavyweight multinationals, with factories around the world. The latest list released by Automotive News in June shows the 100 Top Global Suppliers in 2018 are from 17 countries including Germany, Japan, Canada, Spain, South Korea, Mexico and China. Each car includes up to 10,000 parts and components. From assembly to production, the division of labor among the various suppliers in the global industrial chain is inseparable.
Any small link in the automobile sector, if affected by the current trade war, will disrupt the entire industrial chain. As the Chinese saying goes, "When the city gate catches a fire, the fish in the moat also suffer." The United States imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum products produced in other countries. This has an obvious trickle-down effect on companies including GM, Ford, and BMW. The Financial Times pointed out that in fact, "Donald Trump has begun dismantling the world known by carmakers as he attempts to implement his election promise to bring back US jobs and tear up international agreements he sees as harming blue-collar voters".
The ones facing destruction at the hands of Trump also include jobs for American auto workers, the blue-collar voters that he claims to protect every day. Because the US president is letting the "tariff bullets" be fired blindly against the outside world, the steel plates he's taxing are now being used to deflect those "bullets" back at American workers. The injured are the foreign car companies that set up factories in the United States, which are helping solve the problem of American employment. German company Daimler AG notes that in 2017, 20 percent of its cars manufactured in the United States were sold in China. In the second quarter of 2018, due to the Sino-US trade frictions, Daimler's net profits dropped by 27 percent. If the tariffs continue, the company says it will reconsider its production layout, including the possibility of establishing a new plant in China.
BMW Motors has its largest auto plant in Spartanburg, South Carolina. BMW has now surpassed local US auto brands to become the largest auto exporter in the US, employing 9,000 staff. Around Spartanburg, there are more than 200 auto parts manufacturing plants from more than 20 countries, each with local employees. Last year, 70 percent of BMW vehicles manufactured at the Spartanburg plant were sold outside the US, with around one-quarter of them exported to China. The New York Times reported a June letter to the US Commerce Department in which BMW said it might cut investment and production in Spartanburg if selling its American-made SUVs abroad becomes too expensive.
As the world's largest car market for the last nine years, vehicle producers won’t abandon China easily. The subtext being put out by Mercedes-Benz and BMW is already very clear. That is: if the trade war continues, it will be inevitable that they will have to cut production and enforce layoffs in the United States.
The Financial Times has quoted a professional analyst as describing the impact of the trade war on the global automotive industry as a "perfect storm." "Perfect" in this case means a combination of factors that could yield a fatal blow to the global automotive industry. In meteorology, storms develop through changes in barometric pressure. To prevent US job losses, the White House is the only one with the ability to send the trade winds in the right direction to help create a barometric balance and prevent an automotive 'super storm.'
国际锐评 | 贸易战祭出了第一个全球化牺牲品
卖到中国的德国汽车涨价了！
中国消费者还没说啥，美国蓝领工人开始焦虑了。这看似令人费解的一幕，就在特朗普政府挑起的贸易战背景下上演了。德国汽车成为特朗普关税政策祭出的第一个牺牲品：明面的牺牲品是在美国设厂的德国汽车公司，潜在的牺牲品则是美国汽车工人的就业岗位。
先还原一下新闻事实吧：7月30日，德国宝马汽车公司将其旗下在美国生产并出口到中国的两款运动型实用汽车（SUV）在中国销售价格分别提高4%和7%，原因是成本增加。至于成本增加的原因，也不难找到：自特朗普政府对多国多线发动加征关税的贸易攻势后，美国产宝马车的全球采购零部件价格上涨了。同时，作为对美国的反制措施之一，中国从7月6日起对产自美国的进口汽车在新实施15%关税基础上再加征25%，即征40%的税。这意味着，今后以美国为原产地的各国品牌汽车在中国的市场份额将因价格因素而减少。
早在白宫对其主要贸易伙伴开征钢铝关税、打响贸易战第一枪起，就有不少业界人士分析说，全球化产业链发展程度很高的汽车和电子产品可能会首当其冲，成为牺牲品。因为，全球大型汽车生产商都是重量级的跨国公司，在世界各地建厂。根据《美国汽车新闻》（Automotive News）今年6月公布的最新榜单，2018年全球100家最大汽车零部件公司（100 Top Global Suppliers），来自德国、日本、加拿大、西班牙、韩国、墨西哥和中国等17个国家。每辆汽车涉及的零部件高达上万个，从组装到生产下线，离不开全球产业链上各国各供应商的精密分工，协同合作。
此轮贸易战对汽车产业链上任何一个细小环节的影响，都会搅乱整条产业链，这就是所谓“城门失火，殃及池鱼”。美国对产自其他国家的钢铝产品加征关税，随后不少国家进行反制，就殃及包括美国通用、福特在内，也包括德国宝马在内的各大汽车企业。《金融时报》指出，事实上，唐纳德·特朗普为了兑现其竞选时将工作岗位带回美国的承诺，撕毁了他认为会损害美国蓝领选民的国际协议，这实际上已经开始摧毁汽车制造商们熟知的世界。
一起被特朗普摧毁的，可能还有他天天挂在嘴边要保护的美国汽车工人即蓝领选民的就业岗位。因为，美国总统让“关税子弹”对外一阵狂扫，被反制的钢板给弹了回来，打伤的倒是在美国设厂、解决美国人就业问题的外国车企。德企戴姆勒公司表示，2017年它在美国生产汽车的20%销往中国，2018年二季度由于中美贸易摩擦，它的净利润已下降27%，如果加征关税继续，它将重新考虑生产布局，包括在中国建立新厂的可能性。
再看宝马汽车公司，它在美国南卡罗来纳州的斯帕坦堡城（Spartanburg）建有其全球最大的汽车生产厂，现已超越美国本土汽车品牌，成为美国最大的汽车出口企业，在当地雇佣员工9000人。在斯帕坦堡城周边，还有来自20多个国家的200多家汽车零部件生产厂，每一家工厂都有当地雇员。去年，斯帕坦堡厂出产的宝马汽车，70%都销往美国境外，约25%出口到中国。《纽约时报》报道称，宝马公司曾给美国商务部写过一封信，表示如果未来出口美产宝马SUV成本过高，公司将会考虑削减在斯帕坦堡城的投资和生产规模。
作为连续9年稳坐世界第一大汽车消费市场的中国，一直都是各国各大车企青睐并不愿轻易放弃的市场。奔驰、宝马两家德企的潜台词已经很明确，那就是：贸易战如果继续下去，在美国减产裁员不可避免。
《金融时报》曾引用一位专业人士的话，将贸易战给全球汽车产业带来的影响形容为一场“完美风暴”（perfect storm）。“风暴”的“完美”在于一丝一毫都指向它的反面，即各种因素组合起来，对全球汽车行业会带来致命性的打击。还是那句话，阻止风暴的球在白宫手里，怎样拯救风暴中的同胞，就看它愿不愿意踢出这一脚了。（国际锐评评论员）
（来源：中央广电总台国际在线）
