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Review of Eco development of Guangdong in Jan-Jun,04
Latest Updated by 2004-07-15 15:56:11

--A Review of Guangdong's Economic Situation in the First Half Year

In the first half year of 2004, with the implementation of the scientific concept of development and the central government's various macro-control policies and measures in earnest, a quick and rational development was kept in Guangdong's national economy. According to preliminary estimation, the gross product value of Guangdong was 695.97 billion yuan, up by 15.1 per cent at comparable prices. Of this total, the value-added of the primary industry was 36.92 billion yuan, up by 4.1 per cent; the secondary industry was 392.42 billion yuan, up by 19.0 per cent; and the tertiary industry was 266.63 billion yuan, up by 11.2 per cent. The main features of the economic performance came as follows.

Firstly, good development was achieved in the agricultural production. A recovery growth was seen in the grain production after its four-year consecutive decline. According to a sample survey, the planting grain areas would grow by 1.2 per cent in 2004. It was estimated that the whole year would expect a 42 million mu of grain crops and 14.45 million tons of grain output, an increase of 420,000 mu and 150,000 tons over the previous year respectively. A good harvest would also be expected in fruits. The output of lychees would be 1 million tons, up by 30 per cent over the previous year. The fishery production registered a continuous growth. During the January-June period, the output of aquatic products grew by 3.0 per cent. The animal husbandry was basically stable. The epidemic of bird flue had been effectively eliminated. In the first half year, the gross output value of agriculture was 66.06 billion yuan, up by 5.5 per cent or 5.8 percentage points higher than that of the same period of 2003.

Secondly, fast growth was registered in the industrial production and further improvement was made in the efficiency of industrial enterprises. In the first half year, the value-added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was 316.36 billion yuan, up by 23.1 per cent or 3.6 percentage points quicker than the same period of the previous year, which had also been the quickest growth speed since 1998. The growth steps of all types of economic ownerships were accelerated. The value-added of the State-owned and State-holding enterprises, the share-holding industrial enterprises, and the enterprises invested by foreigners or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was up by 23.3 per cent, 25.5 per cent and 24.3 per cent on a year-on-year basis. The growth of the heavy industry was obviously faster than that of the 1ight industry. The value-added of the heavy industry was 178.58 billion yuan, up by 25.2 per cent or 6.4 percentage points faster than that of the light industry. The nine key industries kept good momentum. The value-added of the nine industries was 224.44 billion yuan, up by 24.9 per cent, which accounted for 70.9 per cent of the provincial total and contributed 76.2 per cent to the industrial growth of this total, the value-added of telecommunications faci1ities, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing was 71.55 billion yuan, up by 36.8 per cent year-on-year, or 7.7 percentage points to push forward the growth of the value-added of the industrial sector above designated sized. The leading role of the industry to the whole economy was continuously strengthened. The industrial sector contributed 67.5 per cent to the economic growth, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the same period of the precious year, or 10.2 percentage points to push forward the economic growth.

During the January-May period, the overall economic efficiency index of the industrial enterprises above designated size was 150.1, up by 11.6 percentage points year-on-year; their sales revenue was 952.58 billion yuan, up by 25.7 per cent; and their total volume of profits stood at 46.84 billion yuan, up by 39.7 per cent. The growth in profits was found in cost of the industrial sectors. Among the 39 sectors, 30 of them kept growth. Of this total, the newly increased profits of five sectors including petroleum and natural gas extract ion, transport equipment, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, chemical industry and power industry were 5.71 billion yuan, taking up 42.9 per cent of the newly increased profits of the whole industrial sector.

Thirdly, investment in fixed assets increased with a slow-down growth speed. In the first six months, the total investment in fixed assets came to 230.89 billion yuan, up by 25.9 per cent, or 8.4 percentage points lower than that in the first five months of this year. Of this total, the investment in capital construction was 95.33 billion yuan, up 39.7 per cent, or 6.8 percentage points lower than that in the first five months; and that in technical updating and transformation was 24.4l billion yuan, up 24.9 per cent, or 15.1 percentage points lower; and that in real estate development was 55.71 billion yuan, up 9.9 per cent, or 1.7 percentage points lower. The number of newly started projects was 550 fewer than that of the same period of the previous year.
The growth in investment in sectors basically followed the orientation of industrial adjustment and the market demand, especially the electronic aluminum, cement and steel which were targeted by the government as overheating and given repeated warning to reduce investment. Guangdong's control in these three sectors was fairly good. In terms of aluminum, there were no such projects under construction of newly started projects. In terms of steel, some 39 projects under construct ion were found in the first half-year, with the total planned investment reaching 7.91 billion yuan and 2.33-billion-yuan investment completed. The investment in steel was down by 12.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis. In terms of cement, those small-sized cement enterprises were closed down in the past years. At present, the cement projects under construction and the planned built or expanded projects were all those equipped with advanced technology and meeting the government 's industrial adjustment.

Fourthly, the sales in consumer goods market were continuously quickened. In the first six months, the total retail sales of consumer goods stood at 303.13 billion yuan, up 13.8 per cent, a real growth of 11.1 per cent or 1.0 percentage points higher than that over the previous year if price factor was deducted. Of this total, the retail sales of the wholesale and retail industry was 254.02 billion yuan, up by 14.0 per cent; that of the catering industry was 47.45 billion yuan, up by 14.8 per cent, which was 2.4 percentage point s and 9.8 percentage points higher than that of the same period of 2003 respectively. The high-end consumption 1ike cars and housing was continuously heating up. The consumption demand for health and telecommunications was also rising rapidly. During the first six months, the retail sales of telecommunications equipment, cars, building and decoration materials grew by 83.9 per cent, 55.8 per cent and 51.4 per cent.

Fifthly, fairly rapid growth was scored in foreign trade. From January to June, the total value of import and export stood at 159.29 billion US dollars, a growth of 28.0 per cent year-on-year. Of this total, the value of export was 82. 87 billion US dollars and the value of import was 76.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 26.0 per cent and 30.2 per cent respectively. The foreign trade surplus was 64.5 billion US dollars. The export of the general trade grew by 32.4 per cent and that of the processing trade rose by 23.8 per cent. Quickened growth was scored in the export of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products, up by 31.5 per cent and 42.8 per cent respectively. The export of all types of ownerships registered an increase. The export of the foreign-funded enterprises, which accounted for 60 per cent of the total value of export, grew by 29.1 per cent. And the exports of the private-run enterprises, the collective-owned enterprises and the state-owned enterprises rose by 87.5 per cent, 35.3 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively. Analyzed by destination, the export to major trade partners and new trade partners kept good momentum, of which the export to ASEAN, USA, Hong Kong, EU, the Middle East, Latin American countries and African countries was up by 20.4 per cent, 24.6 per cent, 26.2 per cent, 27.2 per cent, 37.4 per cent, 38.2 per cent and 39.0 per cent respectively.

Sixthly, the growth speed of the market prices slackened their pace. During the January-June period, the consumer price index was up by 2.4 per cent and the retail price index was up by 2.2 per cent. The general consumer price index kept the same level compared with the same period of the previous year if the fluctuations of food prices were deducted. In June, the general consumer price index was down by 0.6 per cent over May. Of this total, the price index for consumer goods was down by 0.4 per cent and that for service items was down by 1.1 per cent compared with the previous month. In terms of categories, the price index for recreational, educational and cultural goods and services was down by 1.9 per cent; food, down by 0.6 per cent; clothing, down by 0. 4 per cent; residence, down by 0.1 per cent; household facilities, articles and maintenance service, medicine and medical services and private articles, transport and telecommunications, down by 0.3 per cent; and tobacco, liquor and related goods, up by 0.1 per cent.

In the first half year, the ex-factory price indexes of industrial products registered a year-on-year growth of 1.1 per cent, and the purchasing price indexes of raw materials, fuels and power was up by 10 per cent. However, compared with the previous month, June witnessed a slight increase of 0.1 per cent in the ex-factory price indexes of industrial products and 0. 6 per cent in the purchasing price indexes of raw materials, fuels and power, both of which showed a slower growth rate.
Seventhly, the budgetary revenue achieved a steady increase and the loans in various forms in all financial institutions showed an evident slow-down. From January to June, the budgetary revenue of local governments in Guangdong was 70.90 billion yuan, growing by 17.1 per cent if calculated in terms of comparable terms. Of this total, the value-added tax, the business tax, the enterprise income tax and the individual income tax rose by 15.5 per cent, 15.7 per cent, 18.1 per cent and 17.3 per cent respectively. The budgetary expenditure of local governments reached 73.60 billion yuan, up by 10.4 per cent if calculated in terms of comparable terms.
At the end of June, the loans in Renminbi and foreign currencies in various forms in all financial institutions (including foreign-funded financial institutions) topped 2,099.49 billion yuan, up by 4.3 per cent compared with the figure at the beginning of the year, which was 114.57 billion yuan less than that of same period of the previous year and was also down by 2.1 per cent over the end of previous month. Of this total, the short-term loans and the bill financing were a decline of 58.26 billion yuan and 57.85 billion yuan over the previous year respectively, or down by 3.7 per cent and 2.9 per cent over the previous month. As for the loans in Renminbi, it reached 1894.49 billion yuan, up by 3.5 per cent compared with the figure at the beginning of the year, which was 123.67 billion yuan less than the previous year or down by 1.9 per cent over the end of May. In general, the financial macro-control took evident effects. The fast growth pace of the loans in Guangdong was under control.

Eighthly, stable growth was registered in the incomes of urban and rural residents and the business climate kept high level. In the first half year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 7,263 yuan, up by 11.8 per cent or 1.6 percentage points higher year-on-year. Its real growth rate was 9.5 per cent if price factor was excluded. The per capita cash income of rural residents was 2,177 yuan, a real growth of 8.0 per cent. At the end of June, the savings deposits of urban and rural residents in Renminbi and foreign currencies came to l,677.49 billion yuan, an increase of 118.41 billion yuan over the beginning of 2004.

The comprehensive business climate was promoted. The business climate index in the second quarter was 139.4 compared with 134.4 in the first quarter, up by 18.9 percentage points year-on-year, representing a record high in the recent two years. As for the entrepreneur confidence index, though 135.0 in the second quarter showed a slighter decline than the first quarter, it still witnessed a fine situation in Guangdong, up by 19.4 percentage points year-on-year.

In addition, the liquidation of the development zones produced good results. According to the related data from Guangdong Provincial Department of Land and Resources, the number of development zones was 102 compared with the original number of 499 and the planned area was 101,708 hectares from the original area of 339,907 hectares, a decline of 80 per cent and 70 per cent respectively. A total of 550-million-yuan arrears had been given back to farmers. Every effort will be made to pay off all the remaining arrears within the year.

All in all, the overall situation of Guangdong's economy in the first six months was fine. Its economic growth was in a basically rational phase.

Although the macro-control has produced a series of results, some problems are still prominent, including the bottleneck in electric power supply, energy supply and transport, and the fairly large growth in the prices of the important consumer goods and means of production 1ike grain and editable oi1. And the rapid increase of inventory of industrial products, the growing menace to the growth of export due to trade protectionism and the others should not be neglected as well.

To maintain a stable and healthy economic growth, we should continue to implement a raft of macro-control measures under the principle of suitable control and different treatment. It is very important to keep the measures and policies under good control and avoid the great fluctuations in economic growth. The strains in supply of coal, electric power and petroleum and transport must be well solved. The agriculture and grain production need be strengthened and every effort need be done to increase the farmers' income. With the establishment of the Pan-Pearl River Delta regional economic integration, the structural adjustment should be accelerated. It is also very imperative to enhance the competitiveness of the products for export to ensure the sustained growth of the foreign trade.

-- by Bureau of Statistics of Guangdong Province

Editor: Catherine & Wing

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