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Threat of tighter moves over economy recedes
Latest Updated by 2006-10-31 09:35:03
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Threat of tighter moves over economy recedes

China's biggest listed firms believed the country's business conditions improved at the start of the fourth quarter as the threat of more aggressive austerity measures recedes, an industry survey said over the weekend.

An index that tracks China's overall business scenarios jumped to 68.44 in October, up from 66.99 recorded at the end of last quarter, Xinhua Finance said in its monthly China business sentiment survey.

A result greater than 50 implies growth or improving conditions and a reading below 50 shows the opposite.

The survey, which covers 141 publicly traded companies, also said a gauge measuring corporate financial positions hit 67.63 in October, up nearly five points from a month before. But it was still lower than 69.85 seen at the end of the first quarter.

The recovery in sentiment follows a stream of data suggesting that China's economic activities are moderating on the heels of a series of measures taken by the government since the start of the second quarter, the survey said.

China has lifted lending rates twice this year and demanded banks allot more money as reserves to curb credit to red-hot sectors.

The nation posted a slower growth in gross domestic product at 10.4 percent in the third quarter from 11.4 percent gain in the April-June period. Fixed-asset investments rose 28.2 percent in first three quarters, compared with a 29.1 percent climb in the January to August.

The slowdown in key economic indicators "led to a significant downgrading of the possibility that the People's Bank of China will raise interest rates for a third time this year before the end of December," the survey said.

A barometer that tracks expectations of interest-rate hikes fell to 55.64 this month from the third quarter's record high of 66.67, but still up from the first quarter's 50.00, the survey said.

"It seems that businesses believe the first round of controls was relatively effective in slowing lending growth, and that further hikes and new tightening measures are unlikely," said Logan Wright, a Beijing-based analyst with Stone & McCarthy.

"But the survey results also suggest that the level of activity isn't what it was at the start of the year, and is unlikely to regain the pace seen in the first quarter."

An index, which measures companies' view over the availability of credit, fell to a record low of 55.51 in October from 58.80 in the previous survey. 

Editor: Yan

By: Source: Shanghai Daily web edition
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