Hong Kong's economic growth is set to drop next year as slowdowns on the mainland and in the United States hurt exports and some uncertainty in the jobs market upsets consumer confidence, a Reuters quarterly poll shows.

The median forecast of 10 economists was for gross domestic product to grow by 5 percent in 2007, slowing from an estimated 6 percent in 2006, 7.3 percent in 2005 and 8.2 percent in 2004.

"Next year will be about maintaining growth. It will be a challenge," said Tai Hui, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank. "There's going to be a slowdown in both exports and on the domestic demand side."

The 2006 growth forecast was slightly below the 6.3 percent projected in a poll in August, but the 2007 prediction was unchanged.

The territory has benefited from the mainland's economic boom, convincing Hong Kong companies and consumers to step up spending and investment.

The stock market is at a record high and wages increased by an average 2.4 percent this year, the biggest increase since 2002, the Institute of Human Resources Management says. It projects that wages will rise 3 percent next year.

The jobless rate has tumbled to 4.7 percent, a five-year low, from a record high 8.6 percent three years ago and many economists estimate Hong Kong now has close to full employment.

Editor: Donald