Guangdong's shrimp export business may find itself jumping from out of the net and into the fire.

On February 17, the US started an anti-dumping investigation against shrimp products from China. The next six months became the "dark age" for the business, with exports from southern China's Guangdong Province to the US dropping 88.5 per cent to 1,885.3 tons.

By July, when the US commerce ministry ruled that China had violated its anti-dumping regulations, overall exports from Guangdong had slid 36.8 per cent to 16,000 tons. The fishing industry of one of the biggest shrimp exporting provinces had serious doubt about its own future.

Then it found a saviour in Mexico, where exports have jumped 800 per cent to 5,960 tons in the first nine months, making it the second largest destination of Guangdong shrimps, next only to the US.

Exports to Indonesia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Australia also rose significantly.

Customs figures show that, during August and September, exports of this segment of fishing products grew 24.1 per cent over last year, to 29,000 tons. Some industry insiders hail it as "coming out of the shadow of the dark age".

But their joy may prove premature.

News from China Food and Local Produce Import and Export Association suggests that Mexican authorities are on the verge of a massive anti-dumping investigation against shrimp exporters from China, India, Brazil, Thailand, Ecuador and Viet Nam.

Guangdong accounted for 48 per cent of China's shrimp exports, according to 2003 data. The coastal province's annual exports of 89,000 tons - an increase of 65.3 per cent - brought in US$470 million in revenue, a 54.9 per cent rise over 2002.

Shrimp exports also accounted for 19.7 per cent of Guangdong's total exports of fishery products.

Of all its shrimp exports, about one third were shipped to the US. Zhanjiang and Shantou are the two major Guangdong cities that sell shrimps overseas.

It is estimated that the chain of shrimp production employs a total of one million people in Guangdong.

The July ruling by the US Department of Commerce imposed an anti-dump tariff of 7.6 to 112.81 per cent. The classification of China as a non-market economy was a decisive factor in the ruling, said experts.

Experts suggest that the industry reduce its over-reliance on a few export markets. They say it's especially important to refrain from shipping to a single destination large amounts in a relatively short period of time. And the industry should avoid such practices as cutting prices indiscriminately and creating chaos in the market.

The fish industry is advised to diversify away from shrimps.

Editor: Olivia