How to evaluate the overall situation of China's solar energy photovoltaic power generation? Which aspects do our main gaps lie in when compared with abroad? How to understand and judge the future trend of photovoltaic power generation? With such questions, we interviewed Xu Honghua, an expert responsible for wind energy and solar energy in the follow-up energy expert panel for the High-Tech Research Development Project of China (863 Project) sponsored by the Ministry of Science and Technology, researcher and doctorial tutor in the Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IEECAS).

When talking about the status quo and the development trend of China's photovoltaic power generation, Xu Honghua said that there was no shortage of power supply in China before 2000; however, since 2001, as China's economy had been developing rapidly and the demands for power had been growing at a rate of over 20 percent annually, there emerged the situation that the power supply was seriously insufficient in China in the successive years of 2003, 2004 and 2005. The shortage of power supply would not be relaxed in the coming two or three years.

China Electric Power Research Institute has made forecasts on China's installed capacity and power generation by the years of 2010, 2020, and 2050 according to the present trend of economic development and China's resource situation. The conclusion drawn is that it is impossible to simply rely on traditional energy resources like coal, water, and nuclear, and there will still exist a certain gap of power supply, which must be filled with power generation from renewable energy resources.

Having entered into the present century, China's production of solar cells comes to a period of rapid development. Baoding Tianwei Yingli New Energy Resources Co., Ltd. took the lead in breaking through its original production of single crystal silicon cells and amorphous solid silicon solar cells, and prepared to construct its production line of 3MWp multicrystalline silicon solar cells; in 2001, Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. in Wuxi successfully set up a production line of 10MWp solar cells. During the years from 2003 to 2005, driven by German and European markets, Wuxi Suntech and Baoding Tianwei Yingli continued to expand their production; then, many other enterprises also set up their production lines of solar cells one after another. As a result, China's production of solar cells expanded rapidly. By the end of 2005, China's production capacity had reached 400 MW with a production volume of 150MW. Most solar cell modules have been exported to Europe.
 
When talking about the latent market capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China, Xu Ronghua elaborated from three aspects: firstly, the electrification of rural areas. Xu said that in 2002, the Chinese government had launched the project of Township Electrification Program, which is the largest rural electrification program adopting photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation in the world by far. As shown by statistics, there are still 3 million households with a population of 13 million people having no access to electricity in China by the end of 2005, among which 1.5 million households with a population of 7 million people will have access to electricity through the extension of the electricity network, small hydroelectric stations or migration. The rest 1.5 million households will have access to electricity by adopting photovoltaic power generation systems and wind-PV hybrid power generation systems in the next 10 years (from 2006 to 2015). It is forecast that the total installation capacity will reach 300MW and the total investment will be about RMB30 billion yuan.

Secondly, the integration between solar PV system (BIPV) and city buildings. During the tenth Five-Year Period, the Chinese government reinforced its efforts to develop a grid-connected photovoltaic system integrated with buildings; and with supports from the Ministry of Science and Technology, the first demonstrative 50KW grid-connected photovoltaic system integrated with buildings was developed by Beijing Corona Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (BCST) in Beijing. On top of that, BCST built up a 1KW grid-connected photovoltaic system integrated with buildings for the Shenzhen Garden Exhibition in 2004 and the system, as the largest grid-connected photovoltaic system integrated with buildings in Asia, was connected to the power grid to begin generating electricity in August 2004. Both these two grid power generation systems have set a good example for China's integration between photovoltaic power generation and buildings.

Xu Honghua estimated that there would be a roof plan in China before 2010, planning to install 50MW solar cells; there would be even larger BIPV programs before2020 and the accumulative installation capacity would amount to 700MW. As the floor areas in China now add up to 40 billion square meters and the roof areas add up to 4 billion square meters, the total areas that can be utilized will add up to about 5 billion square meters plus the areas of south facades. If 20 percent of the total areas can be utilized to install solar cells, the total installation capacity will amount to 100GW.

Thirdly, the large-scale photovoltaic power stations in deserts. As power stations in deserts must transmit electricity over a long distance, priority is generally given to medium and large-scale power stations. China is still blank in the research and construction of large-scale solar power generation systems directly connected to the high voltage grid. To make up such a blank, the construction of such a large-scale solar power generation plant was entrusted to BCST in 2004 with supports from the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Tibet Autonomous Region government. On August 31, 2005, China's first 100kWp photovoltaic power generation station directly connected to the high voltage grid was built up at Yangbajing, Tibet, and the power generation station was successfully connected to the grid once for all.

As estimated by Xu Honghua, about 2 to 3 power stations with the installation capacity of 20MW will be built up in desert before 2010; the accumulative installation capacity of photovoltaic power stations in desert will amount to 200MW by 2020. China boasts vast deserts, desertified lands, and potential desertified lands with a total area of up to 1.05 million square kilometers. As a 100MWp solar cell can be installed in an area of 1 square kilometer, a total of 1000GWp solar cells, which is twice of China's existing installation capacity, can be installed if only 1 percent of the desert areas is used to install solar cells.

Editor: Yan