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Moody's predicts China property market recovery

2015-August-30       Source: Xinhuanet.com

The downward pressure on China's home prices will gradually ease through the rest of the year as house sales rise and developers manage to lower inventory levels, rating agency Moody's predicted in its latest industry report.

These favorable policies, including increased availability of mortgages, as well as lower down-payments and funding costs for buyers financing their second homes with bank mortgages, will support sales over the next 12 months and help maintain healthy growth in the second half of 2015, it said.

"While overall nationwide inventory levels have remained high, both tier-one and sample tier-two cities continued destocking in July 2015," said Franco Leung, a Moody's vice president and senior analyst.

"Accordingly, we expect to see a continued easing in home price pressures through 2015, as developers manage down inventory levels."

Moody's also warned that the depreciation of the Chinese currency yuan that has followed the shift in the mechanism for determining the daily fixing rate of the yuan against the U.S. dollar will challenge Chinese property developers, given their significant exposure to foreign-currency debt, the majority of which is denominated in the U.S. dollar.

Nevertheless, the agency expects the majority of its rated developers to withstand up to a 10-percent depreciation of the yuan relative to foreign currencies without it impacting their credit ratings.

Furthermore, it is possible that other factors could counterbalance the impact of a currency depreciation, including the potential for further declines in domestic interest rates and the ongoing opening up of the domestic bond market as a funding avenue, it added.

Editor: Nan

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